2024-01-05 16:14:20
With 1.48 degrees of global warming since industrialization in the nineteenth century, the world’s climate has exceeded the darkest premonitions of most climatologists at the beginning of 2023, according to a European data analysis. This current value comes from the ERA5 reanalysis program of the European Copernicus program and was presented by experts shortly after the first Japanese analyses. Earlier this week, the Japanese database JRA-55 reported global warming of 1.43 degrees Celsius based on another analysis.
Many official climate assessments have not yet been made public; the first ones are expected at the beginning of next week. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the jump in temperature that has been feared for several months has actually occurred. In particular, in the second half of 2023, the global temperature value – including in December – was half a degree above the warming level of around 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial level calculated by 2022. On a daily basis, deviations of two degrees above pre-industrial levels were also reached. The reference period is the global average temperature between 1850 and 1900.
El Niño will continue to keep temperatures high
When it comes to the distribution of heat, the oceans – especially the North Atlantic – stood out last year. The El Niño thermal anomaly, which caused above-average warming in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, especially in the second half of the year, is one of the drivers of the recent heat records.
Joachim Müller-Jung Published/Updated: Recommendations: 25 Tjerk Brühwiller, São Paulo Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 11 A comment from Joachim Müller-Jung Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 166
The regularly recurring climate phenomenon El Niño will continue to keep temperatures high in the year 2024, which has just begun, and will cause numerous extreme weather conditions around the globe. It is unclear to what extent this record El Niño, the highest since 2016, is itself driven by man-made heating of the oceans and atmosphere.
The renowned American climatologist Gavin Schmidt recently explained on Platform 1.5 degrees. He put the probability of this at 55 percent.
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