2023-12-06 17:43:04
The Dubai Climate Summit, COP28, has reached its midpoint, being a true reflection of the difficult balance between guaranteeing climate security and the economic interests of the 198 countries called to agree on the steps to follow in order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. After a day of rest, the conclave will enter its “political phase” with the hope of many that CO28 will end with a clear message about the beginning of the end of the era of fossil fuels “without adjectives.”
On the table, all options remain open after the publication of a draft of one of the most sought-after documents of this summit: the one that should close the first review process of what has been achieved since the Paris Agreement and what still remains to be achieved. to achieve its objectives, known as Global Balance. It ranges from the fair and progressive elimination of all fossil fuels, to doing nothing, to only the elimination of coal that does not have CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies to bring it to zero. its emissions.
Without a doubt, in the negotiations of what the final message should be, the dependence of each country on coal, oil and gas will once again be weighed. The EU defends the end of the use of all fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) in the energy sector before 2050 because there are already competitive technologies to replace them; For the rest of the uses, it supports that they continue to be used only when it is CCS. The US advocates for “some” gradual elimination by 2050, leaving CCS fuels only for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize (aviation, steel, etc.).
Saudi Arabia and Russia (second and third largest producers of crude oil after the United States), China (largest emitter) or India (dependent on coal) have not publicly shown their cards, although the voices that report “outside the microphone” speak of their ironclad opposition to “putting in writing” references to the end of fossil fuels, which are primarily responsible for the climate crisis.
In this context, climate scientist Joeri Rogelj, one of the proponents of limiting warming to 1.5°C at the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial era, has warned that talking only about the end of fossil fuels without mitigation ” is not at all consistent with a low-carbon future” that is needed. What the text “suggests” about the future use of fossil fuels is “scientifically weak” because what is being tried to achieve to maintain the 1.5 degree goal “is for all fossil fuels to clearly decline over this period.” century,” he said.
Currently, CCS fossil fuel production is “minimal” and there are no technologies developed on a global scale, so referring only to them at COP28 would not give a clear message about the future of coal, oil and gas to guide countries . According to the IPCC group of climate experts, current policies would lead to a warming of 3ºC by the end of the century, double what is desirable, so it is urgent to accelerate the reduction of emissions.
After beginning with a historic agreement for the creation of the loss and damage fund to compensate countries with fewer resources and, in turn, more exposed to the effects of climate change, the “technical” part of the summit took place in the middle of a barrage of “alliances, declarations and initiatives” full of non-binding promises of climate action and billions of dollars.
Among these promises, the commitment of 123 countries to triple installed renewable capacity and double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030, that of 138 nations to include health in their climate plans or that of 52 major oil companies to be zero stand out. net emissions in 2050. At the monetary level, the parties have committed 726 million dollars for losses and damages, more than 3.5 billion for the Green Climate Fund (mitigation and adaptation) and 133.6 million for the Adaptation Fund, between a Endless multi-million dollar ads.
With the issue of loss and damage – one of the biggest demands of the Global South along with financing – resolved, the parties are focusing much of their efforts on resolving the crossroads of how to accelerate emissions reductions to 2030/2050 to ensure safety climate of the planet while safeguarding their respective economies. Two other central issues in the climate debate, financing and the need to adapt to the effects of warming, seem to have been relegated, at least in front of the public.
In the background, the echoes of new controversies surrounding the president of COP28 and director of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Sultan Al Yaber, who to come forward appeared at a press conference alongside the president of the IPCC, Jim Skea, to make it clear that he believes in science and that he considers abandoning fossil fuels inevitable.
What is certain is that, compared to last year’s summit in Egypt (COP27), there is more “confidence, hope and optimism” in the atmosphere at the possibility of leaving Dubai with a message that gives governments and companies “clear signs” that the beginning of the era of the end of fuel has arrived. And all, with the backdrop of the continuous trickle of reports warning that 2023 is a record year in temperature and emissions, in a summit in which, for the first time, doctors, religious leaders, mayors and subnational leaders have been called to join forces.
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