Chile has never had a 100% compulsory voting process, since the return to democracy in 1988. Some will say that it was like that until 2012, but the truth is that only those who voluntarily registered on the electoral roll were obliged to vote.
For this reason, this Sunday will be the first election in recent history where everyone is registered and, formally, everyone is obliged to pay.
The trans-Andean country is also the first to “return” to compulsory voting from the voluntary one. There is no precedent in other latitudes, so how the voters who will vote this Sunday in the plebiscite on the new Constitution will behave has become the most unpredictable of unknowns in recent weeks.
Yes, there is consensus that while more likely voters reflect the pollsthe greater the chances of a Rejection triumph.
As an example, in the Plaza Pública Cadem survey, three scenarios are given: the first, where participation would fluctuate between 60 and 65%, gives 53% to Rejection and 47% to the option I approve; the second, where more or less the same would vote as in the last presidential election, that is, 56%, gives an absolute tie, with 50% for each option.
Finally, a third scenario -which is not improbable- is the one where more than 65% of the voters vote. In that case, the pollster indicates that the Rejection could obtain up to 56%.
Preparations for this Sunday at a voting center in Santiago de Chile. Photo: AFP
Forecasts
The diagnosis is supported by the director of the prestigious Criteria survey, Cristián Valdivieso. in conversation with Clarionthe analyst details that “a more limited participation, similar to the behavior that the country has with voluntary voting, favors the Approve option and becomes more competitive.”
However, Valdivieso explains that the most likely scenario he sees is one where “the Rejection option wins, with a difference between 4 and 6 points.” This is because, in the opinion of his own polls, he is much more likely to increase the number of total voters, even above 70% of the voter registry.
Why is there still uncertainty if it is mandatory? Despite there being fines that fluctuate between 50 and 160 dollars for those who do not vote, the body that must prosecute offending voters is the municipality of each commune.
In the opinion of sociologist and lawyer Roberto Munita, this is “very difficult to carry out. Some will be fined, but the municipalities do not have the machinery to enforce the fine on all those who do not attend.”
Copies of the new Constitution in front of the presidential palace of La Moneda, in Santiago de Chile. Photo: AFP
For this reason, it is believed that, in the best of cases, participation in Chile could be similar to that of other countries with compulsory voting, such as France or Argentina. In other words, the ideal scenario is that the percentage of voters fluctuates between 70 and 80%.
Doubts and queries
From the Electoral Service of Chile (Servel), they have indicated that there have never been so many electoral data queries on their website as in this process.
Namely, until this Saturday almost 13.1 million unique visitors had consulted their data, that is, they are not repeated. This has been, in part, because a new law also debuted in this election that forced the Chilean electoral power to carry out a geo-reference of the polling places, to encourage people to vote near their home.
In this first process under the new law, about 60% of Chileans will vote a few blocks from their declared electoral domicile, what also can encourage participation.
However, the result depends, according to trans-Andean analysts, on the level of participation in the election. The profile of the Approve voter is that of a younger and more mobilized voteras they explain, while that of the Rejection voter is that of a voter with greater fear of the text and who has not necessarily participated in the last voluntary processes.
It will be the flow of people to the polling places that will make it possible to predict, at noon, if the participation increased or remained similar to the previous behavior.
In both cases, the different campaigns will already account for the eventual results they will obtain from 7:00 p.m. in Argentina, when the count begins in Chilean territory.
In accordance with its tradition, very high-speed data processing is expected, so the consolidated results could already be out just one hour after the polls close, as happened in the last presidential election.
Special for Clarin