Surveyor Shlomo Filber, who published the survey data of ‘Direct Falls’ today (Friday), adds a professional commentary in which he explains about the protest against the legal reform, and how influential it really is.
Who are the winners and losers so far? The ‘war on democracy’ has fueled a fighting spirit among large publics in Israel who go out to demonstrate. In front of them, there is an equally determined public, which, although sitting at home, calls on its representatives in the Knesset to continue the reform without fear.
Some important facts that are too early to say how they will affect the parties and the continuation of the plot:
• In the current demonstrations there is a higher than usual presence of middle-aged and elderly people, most of them from the center-left camp. It is true that there is an attempt to brand the protest as young with the use of the words “hi-techists”, “reservists”, “pilots” or “economists”, but unlike the social protest of 2011, in which the main engine was the young generation, here you see on the screens mainly “formers” with silver hair , including Prime Ministers, Chiefs of Staff, security experts and others who came from the Israeli House of Lords with the extra mile. What does this mean for the protest? Worth thinking about.
Many of the organizers, commentators and coverage of the protest, approach it as part of the continuation of the Yes Bibi / No Bibi camps, which has led the discourse in Israel for the past four years. But if you dive into the numbers, you see some interesting phenomena:
• For the first time, the traditional camps were broken. The initiative to support the need for deep changes in the structure of the relationship between the Knesset and the Supreme Court has the support of a little over 50% of Israeli society. Not everyone comes from the right-wing camp. A certain part of the ‘center-leaning right’, most of them from among the liberals in Likud and the national religious sector, actually tend to preserve or defend the hegemony of the High Court, but in front of them are quite a few voters of the state camp, New Tikva and even Yesh Atid voters, who think that the The power of the High Court and to make significant changes.
• Another interesting phenomenon is the fact that for the first time after 5 elections, the “change camp” has an ideological value banner for which it is fighting, and not “just not Bibi” – the glue that stuck the collection of the camp’s parties until now.
• But perhaps the most fascinating phenomenon is the ‘disappearing sector’, the representatives of the Arab sector who represent about 15% of the country’s population. All the polls over the past few years show that the Arab population in Israel has little confidence in the Supreme Court. They, for their part, feel that they are a minority, similar to the feeling of the ultra-Orthodox, who are not protected by the High Court. Part of this feeling is actually built on the High Court’s backing of the security system and the war on terrorism.
The Arabs do not participate in the demonstrations, especially after the organizers removed the PLO flags from the protest, and you will not see them fighting for reform in the Knesset committees.
• And finally, are investors really fleeing Israel? The answer is complex. Investors do tend to take the money out of countries that are in instability, but is Israel really in instability? If you check the economic indicators, Israel is one of the strongest and fastest growing markets in the world. But if analysts in London, Zurich or New York base themselves on the headlines flowing from the media in Israel, they must raise a red flag to their investors and warn them that something unclear is happening in Israel.
Bottom line, the battle now is over the narrative, in Israel and abroad. And as we posted before, the Israelis are smart, attentive, gather information also from the social networks that break the ranks of the media chorus, and form an independent position for themselves in relation to the reform, the compromise proposals and the desired situation.
In the end, the analysts abroad will also get the full picture. For that we will have to wait for the next chapters.