2023-08-10 11:52:05
Brussels. The rise of far-right parties in European countries continues. Millions of voters in Europe are shifting to right-wing populist parties. The traditional social democrats, green ideologues and leftists of the EU are losing their appeal at the ballot box. According to current European polls conducted by the German media outlet „Politico“, far-right, nationalist and anti-European Union parties are expected to achieve a major victory in the European Parliament elections to be held on 6-9 June 2024.
According to the projection made by „Politico“, the media outlet of the German newspaper Die Welt, based on current surveys across Europe, the political groups in question will participate in the European Parliament (EP) meeting to be held on 6-9 June 2024, as a result of the strong political wind caught by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. It will find support at 23.5 percent, an increase of approximately five points in the elections.
The Greens’ group in the EP will suffer a heavy defeat, losing nearly a third of their seats and remaining at just under 7 percent. It is assumed that the conservative and liberal parties will also face significant losses, and while the social democrats will be able to maintain their vote share, the extreme left wing will also become stronger.
Elections are held every five years to determine the 705 deputies who will be elected to the European Council and the European Parliament, which is the law-making institution of the EU and approves the EU budget. The last elections were held in May 2019.
In the current European Parliament, far-right, nationalist and anti-EU parties are organized in two groups: the “European Group of Conservatives and Reformists” (ECR) and the “Identity and Democracy” (ID) group.
According to Politico’s projection, “ID”, of which the AfD is a member, will win 15 seats in next year’s election, reaching 77 out of a total of 705 seats; This means an increase of about ten percent.
According to estimates, the AfD, which can win approximately 20 seats in the elections in Germany, will be the most important factor in the growth of the formation in question. The AfD is currently represented in the EU Parliament by nine deputies. Other members of the “ID” group include the Italian “Lega”, the French “Rassemblement National” and the Austrian “FPÖ”.
According to the evaluations, the „EKR“ parliamentary group will also perform well. The „EKR“ will win 23 seats and 89 deputies, which means a share of 12.6%. Thus, „EKR“ will become the third strongest group with 89 seats, equal to the liberals, after the conservative „EPP“ group and the social democratic „SundD“.
Most of the increase will come from the Italian ruling party „Fratelli d’Italia“, which currently has nine MPs in the parliament but is expected to increase its share significantly. The parliamentary group “ECR” also includes the “Swedish Democrats”, the Czech ruling party “ODS”, the Spanish “Vox” and the Finnish “The Finns”. It is very likely that the Hungarian “Fidesz” party will also join one of the two right-wing nationalist groups.
Heavy losses are expected for the Greens
According to projections, the Greens AP group will lose 24 seats and have only 48 MPs in the new parliament. The Greens, currently the fourth largest group in the parliament, will rank sixth, falling behind two right-wing nationalist groups, according to election forecasts.
In the last European elections in 2019, the Greens benefited from the “Fridays for Future” movement that emerged at that time, and as a result, the issue of climate change dominated the election campaign. Currently around a third of Green MPs come from Germany.
According to Politico projections, the conservative “EPP” group, to which the German Unity Parties CDU and CSU belong, will also be among the losers of the election and will lose 12 seats, falling to 165. The liberal “Renew” group, which is dominated by Emmanuel Macron’s “Renaissance Party” and includes the German liberal FDP, will also lose 12 seats and have only 89 MPs.
The „SundD“ group, which includes the German social democrat SPD, will be able to stop the downward trend in the last elections and according to the projection, it will gain two seats and reach 145 seats. Bringing the left parties together and bearing the same name, the group will win eight new seats, bringing the total number of deputies to 45.
Van der Leyen’s re-election chances are decreasing
These predictions are also considered very important for Ursula von der Leyen, who wants to be re-elected as President of the EU Commission next year.
Ursula von der Leyen came to office with a narrow majority of nine votes in 2019, but parties such as “PiS” in Poland or “Fidesz” in Hungary, which supported her last time, are expected to vote against Leyen this time.
Some MPs from the “EPP” group of which she is a member have also declared that they are against Leyen’s re-election. In this case, Leyen has to rely on the votes from the social democrats, liberals and Greens, but it seems difficult for these votes to be sufficient. One of the important and unknown questions at the moment is whether Giorgia Meloni’s Italian “Fratelli d’Italia” will vote for von der Leyen.
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