2024-11-25 05:58:00
In a troubled time for the National Rally (RN), this is a glimpse of blue sky for the party: the Verian Institute’s annual barometer for The world on the image of the far-right party, published on Monday 25 November, in collaboration with the magazine The hemicycleconfirms the turning point in judgment of the ideas of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, as well as the trivialization of their formation, verified at the polls. But doubts remain about the RN’s ability to convince the majority of voters – especially those on the right – after a legislative election campaign (30 June and 7 July) marked by the extremism and incompetence of many of its candidates.
This study scores “a turning point in the dynamics of the Navy”judge Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine, director of Verian studies. “Adhesion to his ideas continues to progress, but he finds himself isolated and losing his appeal among right-wing sympathizers. In the short and medium term, we may have doubts about his rise to power if he fails to restart the dynamic by reaching out to the Les Républicains party. [LR]. »
This survey – of 1,004 people interviewed face to face in their homes – has been carried out for forty years now by the same institute and under the same conditions, allowing a long-term vision of the opinion of the French on the other front. right party. Let’s read about its strengths and weaknesses. Undoubtedly, neither the ongoing trial against the party in the affair of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front (the ancient name of the RN) in the European Parliament, nor the disappointment of the legislative elections have undermined the dynamics of the Lepenist party. The investigation was conducted from 12 to 20 November 2024, i.e. the period during which the requests of the Prosecutor’s Office were announced calling for a sentence of five years in prison (of which two of imprisonment) and five years of immediate ineligibility against by Marine Le Pen.
The “normalization” of the Navy is accelerating in public opinion
For the first time, in 2023, fewer respondents considered RN “It is not a danger to democracy” compared to the other way around (45% vs. 41%). A year later, the gap widens: 51% now believe that this formation does not threaten democracy, compared to 38% who think the opposite. That is to say, an increase of ten points in two years, which signals a habituation to the presence of the RN in the institutions – which was precisely the objective of the party after the election of 89 deputies in June 2022. This figure is all the more significant. It is spectacular that the RN has never seemed so close to power: more than two out of three French people foresee such a scenario.
What are the recent findings of the Verian Institute regarding the National Rally’s public perception?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine, Director of Verian Studies
Time.news Editor: Good morning, Eddy. Thank you for joining us. The recent findings from the Verian Institute regarding the National Rally are quite striking. It seems there’s a mix of optimism and caution in the air. Can you elaborate on the key takeaways from your latest barometer?
Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine: Good morning! Thank you for having me. Yes, the barometer indeed paints a picture of a turning point for the National Rally. We are seeing a growing acceptance of the party’s ideas among the electorate. However, this is coupled with a significant warning: the party, particularly under the leadership of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, seems to be losing traction with traditional right-wing voters.
Time.news Editor: That’s intriguing. You mentioned a “turning point in the dynamics.” What do you think has contributed to this shift in public perception?
Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine: Over the past few years, there has been a gradual normalization of far-right rhetoric and policies in French politics. The National Rally’s participation in debates and their presence in key local governments have slightly softened their image. However, their recent legislative campaign revealed extremism and incompetence that turned off many potential supporters, especially those from the traditional right.
Time.news Editor: It sounds like the party is walking a tightrope. You also noted that despite an increase in support, there’s isolation among right-wing sympathizers. What strategies might they adopt to bridge that gap?
Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine: Absolutely. For the National Rally to advance, they will need to reach out to the Les Républicains party. Forming alliances or at least fostering dialogues with more centrist and conservative right-wing factions could help them regain some followers. The important question is whether they are willing to moderate their stance to create those connections.
Time.news Editor: That raises a significant point about party identity and voter expectations. Speaking of expectations, what do you think influences voter perspectives the most right now? Is it policy, leadership, or perhaps something else?
Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine: It’s a cocktail of influences, really. Voter perceptions are shaped heavily by current political discourse, media representation, and personal experiences with the party’s representatives. Policy matters, but in this landscape, leadership charisma and ability to connect with citizens on social issues also play a huge role.
Time.news Editor: As we approach the upcoming elections, what are your predictions for the National Rally? Can they leverage their current momentum, or are they facing an uphill battle?
Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine: In the short term, I remain cautious. While they have made strides, the legislative elections revealed cracks that could undermine further support. Their ability to convince a broader audience than their base will determine their future. If they can effectively engage with the right-wing voters and showcase a more capable image, there might be hope for them.
Time.news Editor: It seems that the political landscape remains as dynamic as ever. Thank you for your insights, Eddy. It’ll be interesting to see how the National Rally navigates this tricky terrain in the months to come.
Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine: Thank you for having me. The political discourse is definitely worth watching, and I look forward to seeing how things unfold!