Sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCV) in Russia at the end of 2021 amounted to 1.67 million vehicles, said on January 13, 2022 at the annual press conference of the Association of European Businesses (AEB), the head of the committee of automakers of the organization, Thomas Stärzel. This is 4.3% more than in 2020, but 5.1% less compared to the dock 2019. In the last pre-coronavirus year, 1.76 million new cars and LCVs were sold on the domestic market.
Spring 2020 lockdown largely determined market trends throughout 2021, Stärzel admitted in his presentation. He said pent-up demand then contributed to a rapid recovery in the market during the first eight months of 2021. But then a global decline in production, a shortage of microchips, logistics problems and other negative trends led to a significant reduction in supply. The car market has not been able to fully realize the existing growth potential, said Stärzel. This can be seen from the forecasts given by the AEB back in mid-2021.Then the association assumed that car sales could grow by 9.8% over the year, recovering to the level of 2019.
December 2021 was a particularly unpleasant surprise for the market. The month, traditionally considered favorable for sales, this time showed a decline of 20% in annual terms, follows from AEB statistics. In December, 133,470 new passenger cars and LCVs were sold in Russia.
Of the top five market leaders, only Toyota was able to increase sales in December 2021 by 13% to 10,369 vehicles. Sales of AvtoVAZ fell by 27% to 29,919 vehicles, Kia – by 22% to 15,531 units. Renault showed a decrease of 1% to 12,049 units, while Hyundai fell by more than half – to 7591 cars.
The reason for the particularly strong decline, Avtostat executive director Sergei Udalov, calls the high base of December 2020. Then sales amounted to 166 666 cars and were, although lower than in December 2019, the market was already actively recovering due to the implementation of the demand deferred by the covid.
At the end of 2021, large automakers still achieved a slight increase in sales compared to 2020. AvtoVAZ was able to increase sales of cars by 2% to 350,714 units, Kia – also by 2% to 205,801 cars, Hyundai sales growth amounted to 3% to 167,331 units, Renault – also by 2% to 131,552 units. Sales of Toyota cars increased immediately by 7% to 97,941 units.
Traditionally, sales of Chinese brands, which are better than other automakers in coping with the shortage of microelectronic components, also grew sharply (Vedomosti spoke in detail about this phenomenon on December 6 and 7, 2021). Haval showed sales growth by 125% to 39,125 vehicles, Chery – by 224% to 37,118 units, Geely – by 59% to 24,587 vehicles. The leader among Chinese brands in Russia, Haval (Great Wall Motor brand), moved from 16th to 12th place in sales over the year.
Among other trends in the car market in 2021, AEB notes the continued decline in the share of the C segment, otherwise called the “golf class”, from 14.78 to 14% and the growth of the crossover and SUV segment (SUV – sport utility vehicle).
The association also noted a stable demand for commercial vehicles. “The LCV market has shown better dynamics compared to the car market as a whole. A slight decrease in sales compared to last year was noted only in the fourth quarter,” says Stärzel. In 2021, 130 691 LCVs were sold, which is 17% more compared to 2020, follows from the data of the AEB. The Russian Gazelle from the GAZ group remained the market leader (47,032 vehicles), Ford Transit (20,840) was in second place with more than a two-fold lag, and the UAZ family of classic cars was third (11,884 units).
Another trend in 2021 was the growth in sales of electric vehicles, which nevertheless, against the background of the entire market, remain at the level of statistical error. The AEB first began to provide statistics on electric cars in 2021 in Russia and counted 1001 such cars. This is 2.6 times more than in 2020.
The segment of electric vehicles showed rapid growth in the first three quarters thanks to the application of a zero import duty rate, Stärzel is sure. This preferential regime expired in 2021, and since the EAEU countries have not been able to agree on its extension (Russia was against it), from January 1, 2022, electric vehicles are imported according to general rules with a duty rate of 15%. This will lead to a slowdown in the development of electric charging infrastructure and the demand for this type of vehicle, they are confident in the AEB.
At the end of 2021, more than 1.5 million cars of all types were produced in Russia, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov told reporters on January 12. This is 10% more compared to 2020, when 1.4 million cars were produced. These departments are based on preliminary calculations of Electronic Passport JSC, which is the administrator of the electronic vehicle passports system (EPTS) in Russia. But they began to be issued without fail instead of paper TCPs only from November 2020, so the Electronic Passport does not have data for comparison with 2019.
Rosstat for 2019 recorded almost 1.7 million vehicles produced in Russia. This value includes cars, trucks and buses of different weights. It is 12% more compared to the volume quoted by Manturov at the end of 2021.
The AEB Automobile Manufacturers’ Committee expects a modest 3.3% market growth in 2022 to 1.722 million passenger cars and LCVs, Stärzel said. He assumes that the main negative factors – problems with microchips, reduced production, disruption to supply chains – will not be eliminated for most of 2022. The share of imports will continue to decline because of this. The association proceeds from the assumption that the geopolitical situation will not worsen and no new sanctions will be adopted on foreign trade activities against Russia.
“Since 2015, the Russian car market has remained quite stable and is in the range from 1.4 million to 1.8 million cars. There are no signs of an imminent improvement in the situation, ”said Stärzel.
Among the topical issues for the industry in 2022, Stärzel noted the need to increase the threshold value of the “luxury tax” for cars. Now it applies to cars more expensive than 3 million rubles. in the form of an increasing coefficient of transport tax. But prices for new cars have jumped by a quarter over the past year, not counting dealer markups, Avtostat reported. As a result, many cars that are not really luxury cars fell under this tax.
Udalov from Avtostat agreed with him, noting that the main factor influencing the market in 2022 will be the shortage of microelectronics. According to him, this problem can be resolved no earlier than the second half of the year. The agency’s baseline forecast for 2022 assumes a 3% decrease in sales of new passenger cars relative to 2021. The optimistic forecast assumes a 5% growth in the passenger car market, and the pessimistic one – a decline of 11%.
.