2024-06-03 15:14:52
Rahul Verma: The exit ballot figures launched on 1st date are stunning. Everybody had mentioned of their pre-poll survey that the Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) is successful the elections comfortably. However no person had imagined that their seats would enhance a lot. Particularly in the course of the elections, many such issues got here up that there’s a shut contest in lots of locations! It was mentioned that BJP could not even get 272 simply! In that sense, these are stunning figures.Extra seats than earlier than: The query arises whether or not issues will change when the precise outcomes come on June 4? I consider no. The numbers given on the nationwide degree in most exit polls are nearly the identical. All have mentioned that BJP can simply go above 320 and NDA above 370-375. However, Congress will enhance its seats solely marginally. Since there’s a similarity in all of the polls, it is rather tough for the outcomes to be reverse to this. On the most 10-15 seats can change right here and there, however now it must be assumed that BJP is coming to energy with an absolute majority, and with extra seats and votes than in 2019.
Revenue and loss : The second large factor we noticed within the exit polls is that BJP is performing the identical method in its core states because it did in 2014-2019. These states are Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. No matter little loss it might face, it might occur in Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Bihar. You may also add Assam and North East on this sequence. However these losses can be very small.
Past Creativeness : BJP goes to get a giant benefit in nearly all of the states on the coast of the Bay of Bengal. I believe even BJP won’t have imagined such a giant benefit. In Bengal, it was believed that perhaps two-four seats will enhance and it could obtain a giant victory there. The identical is occurring in Odisha-Telangana. In Andhra, BJP is successful lots of seats in alliance with TDP. If the exit ballot is right, then this would be the first time when BJP can have at the very least one MP in each large state of the nation.
The situation of India Exit polls present that Congress has retained its stronghold in Kerala and Punjab. It has made some features in Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Haryana and Rajasthan. However the principle factor is that there was no vital enchancment within the efficiency of Congress. The most important setback appears to be for Aam Aadmi Celebration, which can not have any seats, or could get one or two seats from Punjab. Bharat Rashtra Samiti can be dealing with a setback in Telangana. Biju Janata Dal is dealing with a setback in Odisha and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.
Opposition’s technique : This case additionally occurred as a result of maybe the technique that the opposition was making in the course of the elections didn’t succeed. The opposition wasted its time from September 2023 to February 2024 in talks about alliances, who’s going out, who will contest what number of seats? Finally, they’re having to bear the brunt of it.
three issues If what was proven within the exit polls on June 1 comes true on June 4, then it is going to be a giant change for Indian politics. The primary change began from 2014. Wherein BJP, which was earlier a celebration of solely the North-West, reached the North-Jap states in 2019, and in 2024 it expanded its scope. It additionally went to the states adjoining to the Bay of Bengal and the South. Secondly, when the BJP authorities led by Prime Minister Modi is coming again for the third consecutive time period, it’s rising its vote and seat share each time.
Chanakya Lok Sabha Chunav Exit Ballot 2024: Report is near being damaged… BJP is shocking in not one or two however many states, see the outcomes of the exit ballot
Historical past can be made: It is a very distinctive factor. This has by no means occurred in India earlier than. Nehru ji had additionally received three phrases however his celebration’s growth was not rising. The identical factor occurred with Indira ji as properly. Thirdly, if these outcomes are right then difficulties will enhance for the opposition within the coming occasions. This doesn’t imply that there won’t be a tricky battle on the degree of meeting elections and BJP will win simply. However the opposition’s dream of difficult BJP on the nationwide degree has now been postponed for 5 years. (The creator is a political analyst and fellow at CPR)