A day before the polls open, and the tension in the party headquarters is intensifying This time, the victory is not only in the number of mandates that each party will bring, but in the size of the entire bloc and who will obtain the 61st mandate | Ari Kalman makes order, with all the possible scenarios and the ultra-Orthodox influence on the future of the country
Less than 24 hours are left until the ballot elections, until then all parties will try to achieve the maximum result for their party, but on Wednesday morning everyone will wake up to the block game, the size of the parties will be a secondary player, and the block that brings the highest result, will get the key to govern the country for the coming years.
The political system faces six realistic scenarios, in which the ultra-orthodox become a key player and for the first time in several elections they will return to the decisive position and after the results they will be the ones who will decide whether the Netanyahu government, the Gantz government will be established or whether they will give their consent to sixth elections.
The scenarios:
Right-wing government: The right-wing bloc parties strive for a result of over 61 mandates. Which will enable the establishment of a right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu alongside religious Zionism, Shas and Torah Judaism. The job of assembling the government will not be easy as religious Zionism grows – the demands will increase.
The chance: likely
Gantz-Netanyahu unity government: In the event that 61 is not achieved for the right-wing bloc, or even if 61 is achieved, there is a scenario that Netanyahu will prefer a government alongside Benny Gantz with a rotating prime ministership, alongside the ultra-Orthodox, the state camp and possibly other defectors.
The chance: low since Gantz is committed not to sit down with Netanyahu.
The Gantz government: In the event of a political tie, Benny Gantz may become a decisive player who will try to form a government alongside members of the ‘Only not Bibi’ camp with the addition of the ultra-Orthodox, who will not rush to join unless they see that the chances of Netanyahu’s victory in the sixth election do not exist.
The chance: possible but low
The Lapid government: Yair Lapid will also try to form a government and include the ultra-Orthodox alongside the existing government members, but the main obstacle is Avigdor Lieberman, with whom the ultra-Orthodox will have difficulty sitting together in one government.
The chance: extremely low
Sixth choice: In the event that a result is not reached, the chance of reaching six elections is a realistic scenario, but along the way Netanyahu will encounter resistance from the ultra-Orthodox factions who will try to break up the bloc, but also within the Likud from significant MKs who will seek to change the leadership that will bring victory to the right-wing camp.
The chance: likely