No sooner had the Russians moved away from the third wave of the pandemic, as more and more often they begin to talk about the fourth. According to the well-known analyst, candidate of biological sciences, administrator of the group of independent statistics on the social network Alexei Kupriyanov, in some regions the first signs have already appeared that the fourth wave has begun to raise the crest. Using the experience of St. Petersburg as an example, Alexey told the MK columnist, on the basis of which he made such conclusions and made a forecast for the fall.
– Alexey, do you think that the fourth wave could have already come to Russia?
– We have a large country, and the situation depends on the region. Unfortunately, in most regions today the third wave is in full swing, so it’s too early to talk about new trends. As for St. Petersburg, there are some signs that the outbreak has already begun and it may be short-lived. To say something definite, you need to track all the indicators, however, until August 3, our statistics were closed. In June, the Interdepartmental Council to Combat the Spread of Coronavirus Infection stopped publishing data. Only from August 3, their publication in the city was resumed. It contains fundamentally important data on the number of hospitalized people. And if we analyze the information on admissions of people to hospitals, we have seen some growth over the past few days. How significant it will be is unknown. Tracking trends requires indicators for two to three weeks, and in theory, this data is at the disposal of the city, but they are not published. There is also an indirect indicator by which one can judge how likely the next wave is – the number of people with antibodies to coronavirus. In St. Petersburg, unfortunately, there is an impression that there are not enough people with antibodies to create herd immunity even in the event of a second wave with the Delta strain. According to Rosstat, excess mortality in St. Petersburg by June was 22-23.5 thousand. If we add to this the statistics of excess mortality (which can be attributed to the coronavirus) for July and August, it will be about 27-28 thousand deaths. Why is it important? It is important to know the proportion of deaths among those infected for the population over 18 years old – this is just over 1 percent. By this indicator, by means of calculations, we can roughly estimate the number of those who have been ill, even asymptomatic, and who have received immunity. According to my calculations, it turns out that by the end of August the number of such people will be about 3 million. In addition, there are 1.4 million vaccinated (including those who have recovered) with at least one dose in the city. Therefore, according to optimistic forecasts, there will be 4 million people with antibodies in the city by September. This is approximately 75 percent of the population of St. Petersburg.
– So that’s a lot!
– It depends on how you look at it. For a classic (Wuhan) strain, this would be enough. Because, as we remember, with him, on average, one person infects about three more. And if two of these three have antibodies, the epidemic should subside. But this applies to the situation with the classic strain. The problem is that Delta has a higher rate: the Delta carrier infects more than 6 people. This means that you need to have five out of six not infected in the general population in order to achieve herd immunity. And this means that with Delta, the chances of a fourth wave are higher.
– And what can be done?
– We must carefully monitor the situation. And yet, our observations will yield nothing, since our authorities are reluctant to introduce new restrictions, especially in connection with the elections. For example, in St. Petersburg there was a catastrophic increase in the incidence in June and July. But the growth began in May – and nothing was done. It was necessary to hold SPIEF, Euro 2020, “Scarlet Sails”. No restrictions were imposed, and we actually got the development of the third wave in the form of fire.
– Soon everyone will be out of vacation, the children will return to school. Will this somehow affect the situation?
– Judging by the experience of last year, a noticeable increase in the incidence began in the second half of August. So the reversal of today’s trend may come from day to day – and again we will not be ready for this. No one will close schools, introduce remote services, or close entertainment establishments until hospitals are overflowing and a queue of coffins lined up. We must observe all the precautions ourselves.
– So, help yourself?
– Exactly. In fact, the state has left people to fend for themselves, so your task is to vaccinate, put on masks, demand transfer to a remote location, and, if possible, ask for a distance student for children. By the way, “Delta” is much more dangerous for children than the original strain – today there are many cases of severe disease in minors. In theory, it is necessary to limit mobility between regions. They are geographically dispersed in our country, and we could save many people if restrictions on movement were imposed. And in general, we would have less massive consequences of the pandemic. But today we can state that Russia outright lost the battle with the coronavirus. For example, you can compare Finland and neighboring Karelia: the population density is about the same both there and there. But in Finland, the death rate from coronavirus in the spring was about twenty times less. Now maybe thirty. This is a catastrophe.
The key role in the epidemic situation in the fall will not be played by the weather, but by the activity of people, how often they will meet indoors.
– Will the Lambda line reach us?
– “Lambda” will not reach us, it is almost extinct. Indeed, in the world, the winner is not the one who is more terrible, but the one who multiplies faster – this is natural selection. It is not necessary to kill, it is important to be able to spread – and in this regard, “Delta” is still killing everyone. This does not mean that other strains of viruses will not grow. But while Delta is in the lead – while other strains infect three people, Delta is quietly infecting 6-8. In general, I would like to believe that the fourth wave is the last one. But one must hope for the best and believe for the worst.
Read also: “Coronavirus Falls, Mortality Rises: Doctors Explained the Russian Phenomenon”
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