2023-10-23 00:05:00
If it is true that rectifying is wise, the SNP (Scottish National Party) has an IQ on par with that of Einstein, Plato, Aristotle, Leonardo da Vinci or the medieval king Alfonso historical, legal and literary work (made with the help of his scribes) is considered a precursor of prose in Spanish. In the last year alone, the nationalists have changed strategy three times in their quest for independence.
But although the SNP has been wise enough to have been in power in Scotland for sixteen years, in reality it is like those cars that children used to play with, which when they hit the wall or the leg of a chair they turned around. and they went in another direction, until they ran into another obstacle, and so on until their battery ran out. In his case, what he clashes with is that there is no clear majority in favor of independence (the country is divided more or less fifty percent), the British Government’s refusal to hold a new referendum, and the ruling of the Supreme Court that the Holyrood parliament lacks the authority to convene it unilaterally, without the consent of London.
They are imposing obstacles that make any SNP tactic seem doomed to failure, but the quest for sovereignty is the group’s raison d’être, it is what around half the population wants and it cannot give up. The new tactic (agreed at the congress a few days ago in Aberdeen) establishes obtaining the majority of Scottish seats in Westminster in next year’s general elections (at least 29 out of 57) as the benchmark for an independence mandate, and “enter into negotiations with London for a consultation.”
For the first time a Scottish bond will be issued to finance the debt and test its acceptance in the markets
The previous bar was to be the party with the most seats, even if it was not the absolute majority. The previous one, the conquest by the sovereigntist parties (the SNP, the Greens and Alba, Alex Salmond’s group) of more than 50% of the votes in the British elections. According to the approach of former Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, this achievement would have been interpreted as a popular mandate not only to hold a referendum, but to proceed directly to negotiate independence.
Going back even further, though not very far, before the courts gave London the right to veto a referendum, Thursday (October 19) was penciled in on the political calendar as the date for a “non-binding referendum” that, if the yes vote were won, would create enormous pressure on the British Government to allow the breakup. But that day has passed without pain or glory, almost unnoticed, and with independence as far away as nine years ago, when remaining in the Union obtained the support of 55% of the electorate.
The great enemy of the new strategy of Humza Yousaf, Sturgeon’s successor and current premier, is that it is one thing for the SNP to consider that winning the majority of seats in Westminster is equivalent to a mandate for independence, and quite another for the The London Government, which has the upper hand with the support of the judges, accepts that interpretation. David Cameron gave his approval to a referendum just as he did with the Brexit referendum, certain that he would win. But Boris Johnson said no way, Sunak the same and Labor’s Keir Starmer doesn’t want to know anything either.
Disgusted with the state of public services and the cost of living, young families have moved to Labor
The SNP militants themselves are divided over the best course to follow, with some in favor of unilateralism, and others in favor of putting aside the obsession with a consultation and dedicating the next few years to “governing well” and thus attracting new followers. The party, worn out by so many years in power, corruption scandals and the poor state of public services, will probably lose a good part of its 43 seats in Westminster in 2024. Interpret obtaining 29 of the 57 that will be at stake as a mandate to negotiate independence has the advantage of motivating disenchanted voters.
To stop the bleeding of Labor supporters (especially young families from the suburbs), Yousaf has frozen municipal taxes (adding €500 million to the budget hole) and has announced the issuance of a Scottish bond to finance the debt and probe the market reception. More than the British elections, the ones that matter to the SNP are the regional elections of 2026, in order to continue governing Scotland, and for those it still has time to change direction a few times…
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