The slow electrification of the transport sectors

by time news

Electric vehicle markets are growing worldwide: In total, IDTechEx’s latest electric vehicle report “Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2022-2042” finds 35.7 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in 2021 and predicts that this number will increase to more than 74 million in 2030. However, in terms of battery demand and revenue generation in the market, most transportation sectors are facing a transition.

the future of electric air taxis, or electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), is perhaps the most uncertain due to the high regulatory and technical barriers. This is a low-volume, high-value market where aircraft will rely on high-cost, cutting-edge technologies to reach new heights of performance and safety. For example, IDTechEx expects solid-state and lithium metal batteries, axial-flux motors, and carbon fiber materials to play a significant role in the eVTOL markets.

In the commercial maritime industry, batteries are beginning to saturate early adopter segments, such as ferries, and reach their limits in others, such as short and long-distance ships (which produce the majority of the sector’s emissions). Although the demand for batteries will continue to grow – adding a battery to any powertrain for charge management is generally beneficial – it cannot be the only solution in maritime sectors.

in what refers to electric trucks, Tesla, Daimler, VW and Volvo are investing heavily. For example, Tesla famously announced a Class 8 long-haul electric truck, and CEO Elon Musk recently stated that its first deliveries will be to Pepsi by the end of 2022. Although there are far fewer trucks in the world than cars to convert to electric, use much larger batteries (several hundred kWh) and accounted for 4.3GWh per year in 2021.

A smaller minority – Toyota, Hyundai and Nikola – have chosen to focus their efforts on fuel cell trucks as the powertrain of the future. Despite issues with the efficiency and cost of hydrogen fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation as a technology for long-haul truck applications, where greater range is required, although the viability of this technology depends on production. low-cost green hydrogen.

Today, China’s urban trucks are hitting the roads as Chinese manufacturers draw on their expertise in producing battery and electric buses. Given the Chinese government’s strong support for the entire EV industry, this is likely to be where the largest deployment of electric trucks will take place in the coming years. As an increasing number of cities and countries around the world phase out diesel and petrol vehicles by 2030 and the technology’s ability and cost-effectiveness to deliver the necessary daily duty cycles proves itself, it is likely that the electrification of truck fleets to occur rapidly.

Finally, China’s first-tier cities were the first to adopt electric buses, fueling rapid growth between 2012-2016, but many of these markets are now saturated. In 2018, Beijing and Shanghai had 9,368 pure electric buses making up 55% of the combined fleet, all initially powered by a 50% purchase subsidy. The saturation of tier 1 cities in China has caused global electric bus sales to decline over the past five years, offset only slightly by growth in tier 2 and 3 cities in China. Currently, subsidies have been greatly reduced.

Short-term future growth is driven by Europe. The European electric bus market is highly fragmented and in recent years has relied on Chinese OEMs, who still accounted for a quarter of unit sales in 2021.

You may also like

Leave a Comment