2023-10-20 05:58:02
Before the opening of the World Cup, Bill Beaumont, the president of World Rugby, had promised with fanfare an edition “more open than ever” including many « surprises ». At the time of the semi-finals at the Stade de France this Friday 20 (New Zealand-Argentina) and Saturday October 21 (South Africa-England), we are however looking in vain for the big upset: three nations from the Southern Hemisphere for a single representative from the North, routine or almost.
The North has never managed to bring more than two of its representatives into the last four of the World Cup, and it is still not this time. Experts, and not the least of them, predicted quite the opposite. Thus Sir Clive Woodward, the coach of the only northern world champion team, England in 2003, predicted in his column in Daily Mail British before the first elimination matches: “The European teams dominated the group stage and I think they will also make a clean slate in the quarter-finals. »
The summit experience
Except that it was France, Ireland and Wales who left the banquet. Because of a little nothing, a miserable point in the case of the Blues (28-29 against South Africa), but that’s how it is. The story repeats itself. 2023 is not far from 2015, the year when the southern nations achieved the Grand Slam with four teams in the semi-finals.
In the quarter, South Africa had worn down the Welsh who were dominant in the first half, but who ended up breaking down by conceding a try six minutes from time (23-19). Australia won on the wire against Scotland (35-34), thanks to a penalty in the 78th minute, although questionable. The next day, World Rugby recognized the referee’s error, who should not have awarded it…
“A tradition of excellence”
The gap may be slim in sporting terms, but the scales still lean towards the same side. “Perhaps we should see here a dynamic linked to experienceexplains Kévin Veyssière, sports geopolitics analyst and author of Planet Rugby, 50 geopolitical questions (1). France and Ireland have invested heavily in their national teams for just a few years, while New Zealand and South Africa have concentrated their efforts on their selections since the end of the 1990s. There is a tradition of excellence, at work in particular among the Springboks, at the highest average age of the major teams, with the director of South African rugby Rassie Erasmus already in charge during the 2019 title and who masters his subject. »
The plethoric management, the obsession with detail, the ambition and the rage to win, so many elements which also inhabited the XV of France and Ireland this year. There is no longer time to deplore this gap which could still exist a few years after professionalization between the two hemispheres. But the Blues are hitting the quarter-final ceiling for the third time in a row, and the Irish have always been. Do the Southerners stay one step ahead in their preparation?
The hierarchy is reversed among the youngest
“I think that an essential asset for them remains their Rugby Championship, the equivalent for them of our Six Nations Tournamentunderlines David Darricarrère, coach of the back lines of Castres Olympique. The four teams involved play fewer matches than the European nations, but they are of rare intensity and are forging their winning culture. Between adversaries who know each other by heart, they also perhaps explain this strategic intelligence that I found astonishing in the South Africans and the New Zealanders, who were capable of adapting and perfectly executing a perfectly developed plan. »
Do the nations of the North need to change their approach to get over the hump? “We must accept and digest defeat, but persist, because the South shows precisely that it is in permanence that success is anchored,” judge Kévin Veyssière. Especially since the new European generations show no complexes, quite the contrary.
The last Under-20 World Cup in June 2023, flown by the Blues, revealed the power of the young northern guard, the southerners ranking 3rd (South Africa), 5th (Australia) and 7th (New Zealand). ). “It was a real shock for them, and the Southern Hemisphere reacted immediately by creating an Under-20 Rugby Championship from 2024 to toughen up their young people.says David Darricarrère. We stay ahead with an exceptional reservoir, but they won’t lag behind for long. »
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England resists
Who arrived at the World Cup with half of their matches lost over the past two years, clubs whose finances were exhausted after Covid and forced to close their doors, and players pushed towards the brighter skies of the Top 14? England, on which the bookmakers did not bet a penny before the competition. But the eternal Albion is nevertheless in the semi-final, for the sixth time in ten editions, the final European rampart against the southern fury. The team certainly benefited from a lenient draw, but with an extremely united collective and promising young players, the XV de la Rose was able to find some spice and is hopeful against South Africa this Saturday. Even if the statistics do not speak in its favor: in five confrontations with the Springboks in the World Cup, the English have only won once, in a group match (25-6) the year of their coronation in 2003.
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