2023-06-30 18:05:33
Inflation, bankruptcies in the US, the fall of Credit Suisse in Europe, geopolitical tension due to the war in Ukraine and, above all, some rises in interest rates that have made the drums of recession beat loudly. The European markets have resisted with their heads held high in a turbulent first half in which, above all others and against all odds, the Spanish stock market has been the star of the region.
After a complicated 2022 in which the Ibex-35 lost 5.56%, the selective has put its batteries and in this first half of the year accumulates a rise of 16.57%. On Friday it advanced 0.8% to 9,593 points, with which it can already be said that this has been the best semester of the indicator in the last ten years, since the rebound of 26.2% that it registered between June and December 2013.
Investors can be satisfied with a revaluation that generates even more joy if it is compared with the gains of 14% of the German Dax, those of 12 of the Parisian Stock Exchange or the general indicator, the Eurostoxx, which also adds 15% from January.
Actually, we can only envy the Japanese market or Wall Street, where traders have enjoyed a return of appetite for technology companies with gains of more than 33% for the Nasdaq 100, benefiting from the boom in artificial intelligence and linked securities. to the semiconductor sector that make up this selective.
But beware. Do not get carried away by euphoria. The cumulative gains in the first half have been achieved with not a little suffering. And the Ibex-35 continues to be the only indicator that has not recovered its pre-pandemic levels. Specifically, it still has a certain way to go to reach those 10,000 points that it also touched in February 2020.
In Spain, the classics have been the ones that have pulled the parquet. Despite the shock in March, the large banks have managed to recover with cumulative increases of more than 30% and 23%, respectively, for BBVA and Santander, while CaixaBank and Sabadell also rose to double digits.
The recovery of tourism has also left Amadeus, Meliá or IAG with revaluations of between 35% and 43%. But if there is a value that has stood out above the rest, that is Inditex, which has become the best since the beginning of the year with a revaluation of 45%. After this rise, the shares of the textile giant are around 35 euros, triggering the company’s stock market value above 112,000 million euros, the highest in the market.
Central banks, protagonists
All eyes for the second half of the year are directed towards the banking sector, highly influenced by the monetary policies of the central banks that will continue to mark the evolution of the Stock Markets. And it is that it seems increasingly clear that, although the cycle of interest rate hikes is close to coming to an end, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) in the euro zone at least one or two more climbs are saved for this year.
The fight against inflation continues to be a priority despite the recent easing in prices, but the mantra of ‘hopping for longer’ continues to give rise to some fear given the degree of resistance of the economies to this environment.
From Bankinter’s analysis department, they indicate that they consider that “the probability of recession continues to be low.” Thus, the central banks will take the opportunity to gain future room for maneuver with rates: «They will rise more than necessary, once they verify that the economy is not suffering substantially, in order to have room to go down when, as the economic cycle weakens, they need to stimulate the economy by lowering rates without putting inflation at risk,” say the experts.
After the recent rebound in the stock markets, the question now is whether the market has already offered the best of itself this year. “Improbably, but it could go through a phase of logical consolidation,” predict the experts. Looking ahead to the coming months, they indicate that the determining factor for the stock markets to continue rising will be the improvement in corporate profits.
«The most delicate moment and that causes us some concern is the end of July, when the American banks will publish their second quarter figures. It will be then when it will be revealed if they suffer deposit outflows again, ”they express in reference to the shock suffered this year by some regional entities in the country.
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