2023-05-20 06:00:29
The State beat last year the record between what was collected and what had been foreseen in the Budgets, thanks to economic dynamismaccording to the Government, and inflation, according to the opposition. Specific, exceeded the estimated sum by 23,000 milliona, reaching 255,463 million euros, which represented an increase of 14.4% compared to the figure for 2021.
In the entire historical series, at least since the mid-1990s, there had not been a positive gap of this magnitude. This evolution contrasts with the two worst years, that is to say, those in which the collection was much lower than expected, which were 2008 and 2009, due to the financial crisiswith losses of 30,082 and 45,561 million, respectively, over what was budgeted during the socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Later, during the Executives of Mariano Rajoy (PP), downward deviations predominated, until today, after two budget extensions, in 2021 and 2022 more than expected has been entered, as happened between 1997 and 2007, with José María Aznar (PP) and Zapatero .
And last year’s evolution occurred after registering a rise of 15.1% in the previous year. until setting another record, when compared to the year of the pandemic (2020), in which activity was paralyzed. The Ministry of Finance, in the annual collection report, attributes the boost in income to increases in spending on consumption, wages and pensions, and corporate profits, as a consequence of a greater dynamism of the economy. At the beginning of this year, the Secretary of State for the Treasury, Jesús Gascón, estimated in Congress that the collection exceeded the forecast by 10,000 million.
The gross domestic product (GDP) experienced last year a growth of 5.5%the same as in 2021, and despite escalating inflation as a result of the war in Ukraine. The rise in prices and the failure to have appropriate taxes such as the IRPF This would be one of the factors that would have made the collection grow, according to the PP and according to many experts. The Government, on the other hand, denies it and affirms it in the stability program update 2023-2026 sent to Brussels, in which it acknowledges an increase in the tax burden (the portion that taxes ‘eat’ the wealth generated by the country), from 38.7% in 2022 to 39.7% in 2323.
In the Government’s opinion, the evolution of collection “is explained by the dynamic evolution of nominal GDP, supported both by the real factors as in the evolution of priceswith a GDP deflator estimated at 4%, which will, however, slow down along the path until reaching values of less than 2%”.
The document highlights that the analysis of the evolution of tax revenues since 2000 reveals that these increasedn above the growth of the economy even in periods of negative inflation and concludes that “although inflation contributes to the increase in tax revenues, the evolution of the CPI is not the main factor that explains the positive or negative evolution of the fiscal magnitudes being much more decisive the evolution of GDP”.
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In an appearance in Congress last fall, the president of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airf), Christina Herrero, affirmed that around 50% of the increase in collection in 2022 was due to inflation, while for the current year it even raised it to 75%. And a study by EsadecPol calculates that inflation hits taxpayers with annual income between 15,000 and 20,000 euros especially.
In 2022, the tax bases of the main taxes in 2022 grew by 13.1%, practically the same rate as in 2021. Part of it “had to do with the price hikesbut these were not the most important factor in explaining the increase in bases and income,” according to the Tax Agency report.
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“Less than 5 points of the increase in collection were due to price increases above their normal evolution in recent years, despite the fact that the CPI grew, on average for the year, by 8.4%,” according to the Tax agency. And they remember that consumer prices only directly affect part of the income (those from VAT) and that their impact on collection was lower due to the reduction in the rate applicable to electricity and gas consumption.
And in the case of salaries and pensions, “the increases are not linked to the prices of the current year, but, for the most part, to those of the previous year, and in the figures in which the tax revolves around physical consumption, such as the tax on hydrocarbons, the price effect is negative. The increase in revenue was also limited by the impact of the measures aimed at moderating the price of electricity, that subtracted 7,200 million from the collection and the acceleration in the return of taxes. Without these two elements, revenue would have grown 3.2 points more, they highlight.
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