Jill Biden, the first lady, has tested positive for COVID-19, according to reports on Monday. This news comes as Governor Kathy Hochul of New York announces that the state will be sending high-quality masks and rapid tests to school districts upon request. In related developments, schools in Kentucky and Texas have already closed due to widespread respiratory illness among students and staff.
The rise in COVID-19 cases since July, along with reports of new variants, has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of the virus this fall and winter. However, experts have offered reassurance that the country is unlikely to experience the nightmarish scenarios of previous years. There is currently no evidence that any of the circulating variants cause more severe disease or evade immunity enough to render vaccines ineffective.
Although hospitalizations and deaths are increasing on a weekly basis, the numbers remain relatively low compared to previous years. Gigi Gronvall, a biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, stated that these increases are more alarming statistically than in reality. Hospital admissions for COVID-19 increased by about 16 percent in the week ending August 26th compared to the previous week. However, the number of new admissions is less than half of that in the same period last year and only about one-fifth of the number in 2021.
Deaths from COVID-19 also rose by nearly 18 percent over the previous week, but the numbers remain relatively low, with an average of just over 600 deaths per week in August compared to about 3,000 per week in late August 2022 and around 14,000 per week in late August 2021.
Dr. Dan Barouch, head of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, suggested that the virus is evolving and leading to waves of infections, mostly mild in severity. Experts believe that Americans should tailor their behavior to their own risks. Vulnerable groups, such as older adults, pregnant women, and those with weakened immune systems, may choose to take the utmost precautions, including masking most or all of the time and avoiding crowded indoor spaces.
People with reduced risk may also want to take precautions, especially if they may expose more vulnerable individuals to the virus. Staying up-to-date with COVID-19 shots and considering the use of antiviral treatments, such as Paxlovid, if infected and qualified, are recommended.
While most scientists are cautiously optimistic, the future remains uncertain due to the vaccines and variants. The Biden administration has announced that Americans should expect to receive a single COVID-19 shot each fall, similar to the annual flu vaccine. Updated COVID-19 vaccines may be available as early as next week, pending recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The shots will be offered for free to most Americans through private insurers and a new federal program for uninsured individuals. However, it is unclear how many Americans will choose to get vaccinated. As of May 2023, less than half of adults older than 65 and only about one in five American adults overall had opted for the bivalent booster shot offered last fall.
The updated vaccines target a variant called XBB.1.5, which was dominant earlier this year. However, several close relatives have since superseded this variant. Limited surveillance suggests that the most prevalent variant currently is EG.5, also known as Eris, accounting for approximately 22 percent of cases. This variant is also circulating widely in European countries, including Britain, and in Asia. While EG.5 may be more transmissible than XBB.1.5 and partially evade immune defenses, it is not spreading rapidly on a global scale.
Another variant of concern is FL.1.5.1, which accounts for approximately 15 percent of cases in the United States. Both EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 carry a genetic mutation that may help them evade the immune system and bind more tightly to human cells.
However, experts like Andrew Read, an evolutionary microbiologist at Pennsylvania State University, emphasize that it is not unexpected or alarming for the coronavirus to acquire new mutations. According to Read, when a mutation provides an advantageous trick, it is likely to emerge in different places. He explained that the current situation aligns with how virus evolution occurs when a novel virus enters a new host population.
One variant that initially caused concern among scientists is BA.2.86, also known as Pirola. This variant emerged simultaneously in 10 countries and contains over 30 mutations in the spike protein. Researchers, including Dr. Barouch, have since confirmed that BA.2.86 does not evade immunity from infection or vaccination. However, vigilance is still necessary as this variant may continue to evolve.
Overall, experts emphasize the importance of evaluating and monitoring mutations quickly and rigorously. While the situation with COVID-19 remains fluid, the current evidence suggests that the country can navigate the evolving pandemic with continued vigilance and adherence to preventive measures.