2024-01-14 11:09:05
The writer is a former head of the Operations Division in the IDF
The hasty decision of Hamas, which believed that Israel’s weakness was an hour of fitness and hurried to steal glory before its older brother from Lebanon in the attack on October 7, is dragging the Iranian octopus into distress. One by one, the executive arms that it built are being damaged, and also from the height of its regional position, Tehran is in a state of erosion and is facing a coalition that is being built against it. For Israel, from a strategic point of view, this is an opportunity to unravel the Iranian entrapment around it.
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Hamas suffered a very heavy blow and it is doubtful whether it will survive after the war. In any case, it will take him many years to recover, if at all.
Hezbollah lost the surprise and all its plans were exposed. Radwan, his punching force, was the first to retreat, wanting to preserve his integrity. No matter what the outcome will be at the end of the fighting against Israel, building a new strategy against Israel will take him years, and the sight of Gaza does not encourage him to try Israel so quickly.
The Houthi card thrown into the campaign by Iran has awakened the American tiger and with it a coalition of other countries, because the Houthis have no stopping mechanism. The result that will be there, even though there is no American desire for escalation, will require a good mowing of the grass in Yemen.
The Iranians don’t have many additional cards to throw into the fray. A loss of its regional capabilities would put it in a very bad position regionally, would strengthen Israel and the other countries of the region against it, and could once again arouse the internal opposition. The move they are going for is an effort to ignite another front against Israel in Judea and Samaria, by a strong push of deadly weapons, as well as a massive push of money with the aim of triggering an immediate wave of terror against the settlements, axes and the interior of Israel. At the same time, Tehran has been trying for about two months to establish a new fighting front in Syria by mobilizing militias and weapons; This, out of a desire to ignite a wide northern arena on the Lebanese side, what’s more Nasrallah is not willing to go further than the exchange of fire he is carrying out.
The warning of the heads of the security establishment to the prime minister and the ministers of the government about the danger of a multi-front war is happening precisely. The failure was due to the fact that they did not know how to put an accurate warning as to the time and the question of who would start the escalation, but strategically, exactly what they warned him about is happening. But at the time, no one heeded the warnings.
The current situation, after Israel has paid and is paying an extremely high price, opens the door to a great strategic achievement – this is an opportunity to change the map of threats, not only against Hamas, and for tactical success against Hezbollah. There is a possibility here of a regional achievement against Iran, one that will return Israel to a leading position in the region and reconnect the anti-Iranian axis.
The only path to this leads through the Palestinians. The solution is in the least evil, given the lack of other alternatives, but today with the help of the Americans it can also be fixed.
Within a month, Gaza will face a situation where Hamas is militarily dismantled, but if a strong alternative is not built in its place within a short time, Hamas will return in a big way, with or without the presence of the IDF. Hamas will emerge from the remnants that were not eliminated, and whether there is an old or a new leadership, the population, which has been indoctrinated, will support a new Hamas simply because there is no alternative.
An alternative to Hamas is the growth of dozens of ‘Hamas’ or armed gangs that will take over the territory, which will very quickly turn into Somalia – a swamp of countless armed men, who will not be able to be controlled. Israel will eat bitters for decades to come, every October 7.
The biggest obstacle standing in the way – the structure of the government and its leader
The best thing that happened to Israel in this terrible crisis is the strong embrace of the Americans, which simply saved Israel in its war – despite its government, which spared no effort to spoil the long-standing relations and trust.
All Israel has to do is accept the American invitation to tango. The Americans, who bet the jackpot and stood by Israel in an election year, do not want this investment to fail under any circumstances. Israeli agreement to upgrade the PA and build its responsibilities in a defined manner under a security policy favorable to Israel, is the only solution that will pull Israel out of the mud. The move will buy Israel more necessary time to complete the work in Gaza, will allow flexibility for the return of the abductees, will help to reach an agreement with Lebanon that will at least allow the residents to return home, and will bring the Saudi agreement back to the table.
In fact, all the achievements of the war are on the political scale, the scale that can restore strength to Israel and allow it to build itself in the years to come after a very difficult period.
The biggest obstacle standing in the way is the structure of the government and the Prime Minister’s dependence on his coalition, which is already a roadblock in every direction.
The only solution is a decision right now on the dissolution of the Knesset this coming October, and the establishment of a broad national emergency government that can make courageous and fateful policy decisions in the coming months. Failure to make these decisions will cost Israel the loss of the achievements of the war, and much worse than that. Such a government will also prevent unnecessary wastage of funds for coalition needs and allow the concentration of all national resources in the war.
In this way, the IDF and the reservists will be able to continue fighting with peace of mind when the people are united behind them and are entirely focused on one thing – the success of the war.
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