The great return of Washington to the Latin American diplomatic scene, the stated intention of Joe Biden after the catastrophic years of the Trump administration, has taken a hit. Organized in Los Angeles from June 7 to 11, the Summit of the Americas was to bring together the heads of state of the continent and allow the United States to stimulate their influence in their former backyard.
But their refusal to invite the Russophile troika – Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua – on the grounds that they do not respect human rights, cost them the meaningful participation of the Mexican, Bolivian and Honduran presidents, tired of politics. « d’exclusion » American. Which, from the outset, questions the ability of the United States to carry out its ambitions.
Loss of influence
Launched in 1994 in Miami by Bill Clinton to promote trade liberalization in the region, the Summit of the Americas was, according to the principal adviser to the American president for Latin America, Juan Gonzales, to enable the United States to address four main areas: economic cooperation, the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis and the crucial migration issue.
“It is still too early to draw conclusions, we have to wait to see what proposals the Americans will put on the table, but the Mexican defection shows the loss of influence of the United States in the region”, says Gaspard Estrada, executive director of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean – Sciences Po.
A few months before the midterm elections scheduled for November, Washington’s firmness towards Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua is essentially “a signal to the Republican electoral base and the swing states like Florida or Texas”, continues Gaspard Estrada. Still, the democratic argument didn’t stop Joe Biden from planning a bilateral meeting with President Jair Bolsonaro at the summit, as well as a visit to Saudi Arabia later in June. A double standard that can “damage the credibility of this message on the export of democracy”, raises the researcher.
Chinese incursion
While the number of migrants seeking refuge in the United States is on the rise, the absence of Mexican leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo), the Americans’ main partner on security issues, also risks altering “the political weight given to the signing of an agreement”adds the researcher.
Washington must also deal with China’s persistent incursion into the Latin American economic space. In recent years, the latter has been a major market for the export of many natural resources from Latin America.
“Latin American countries expect cooperation in action, and today, more than the United States, it is above all China that is able to finance the construction of bridges, dams or major infrastructure projects. », details Gaspard Estrada. In fact, twenty countries, including Argentina since February, Chile and Peru have joined the new Silk Roads launched by Beijing.
Mexican ambitions
Despite the absence of the three leaders of Mexico, Bolivia and Honduras, Washington can still count on the presence of 24 representatives to try to carry out its draft agreements. But “diplomacy is played at the level of the presidents”recalls Gaspard Estrada.
However, Lopez Obrador carries the undisguised ambition to create, via a reform of the Organization of American States (OAS), a multilateral space freed from American influence. A decision which nevertheless still depends on a consensus involving Washington.