2023-07-01 06:30:12
Jean-Luc Mélenchon during a day of mobilization against pension reform, in Paris, June 6, 2023. AGNES DHERBEYS / MYOP FOR “THE WORLD”
In a country taken by convulsions, the next democratic auscultation is not for now. After the senatorial elections in September, a ballot by indirect suffrage, the first real test of opinion will only take place in a year’s time. The European elections will be held on Sunday June 9, 2024.
The parties are just beginning to outline their strategy. From pension reform to the recent riots that set cities ablaze, the executive power is tossed from crisis to crisis. The oppositions continue their work of undermining in the media or in the spans of a fragmented National Assembly, without really knowing if this agitation will be constructive.
Less than twelve months before this electoral deadline, The worldthe Ipsos-Sopra Steria Institute, the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and Franceinfo conducted a vast survey of a large panel of 10,631 French people to measure voting intentions, but also to try to discern the Evolution of French Attachment to Political Europe.
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And even if the stakes are different from the presidential and legislative elections of 2022, the tripartition of French political life seems to be confirmed. Faced with the presidential camp and the far right, the left, divided on its strategy, could disrupt the frontal opposition between the “Europhile progressives” and the “nationals”, a cleavage theorized by Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen since 2017 It remains to be seen whether this election will be played out on French debates, such as the resentment created by the pension reform, or on more global issues.
Social resentment and identity
If the polling stations opened this weekend, a list of the National Rally (RN) led by the president of the party, Jordan Bardella, would come out on top in all the hypotheses, at 24% or 25%, a level a little higher than that of 2019 (23.34%). With the Reconquest Lists! and Debout la France!, the extreme right is measured between 32% and 35%, up from the first round of the 2022 presidential election. This election is a major test for Marine Le Pen, who hopes to benefit from several themes of concern, in particular purchasing power (50% of respondents, – 7 points compared to June 2022), immigration (30%, + 7 points) and delinquency (27%, + 6 points).
This social and identity rancor will perhaps be further fueled by the pension reform on which the RN hopes to capitalize until 2027.
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