Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
The Zangezur corridor project marks the beginning of a new stage in the South Caucasus. Although Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s promises to open a transport and logistics corridor passing through Zangezur, which is considered de jure territory of Armenia, sound like an intention to increase the importance of the region within the framework of the “Peace Path” idea, in fact, it is observed that these promises do not agree with reality in most cases.
… After the 44-day Patriotic War in 2020, when the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia began, the Zangezur Corridor came up as an issue for which Armenia is also committed. But although the leadership of Armenia has made numerous statements about this, in reality no necessary steps have been taken to implement these promises. Statements made by the Armenian leadership from time to time, such as “the infrastructure will be completely ready”, “unimpeded connections will be ensured” and “support for the development of the region” are mostly declarative in reality.
Nikol Pashinyan’s idea of ”Peace Road” to turn Armenia into a regional logistics and economic center actually sounds like an attractive slogan, but in the current geopolitical conditions and based on Armenia’s own infrastructural capabilities, this vision seems unlikely to be realized. Using its geographical position, Armenia wants to present the South Caucasus as an economic transit intersection of East and West and North and South. However, the realization of this idea raises serious questions due to the tensions Armenia is experiencing in its relations with Russia and Iran and the different strategic interests of other actors in the region.
Turkey values the opening of the Zangezur Corridor as a strategically important project. In addition to creating a shorter and safer road connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan, this corridor will also allow strengthening Turkey’s trade relations with Central Asia and China. Turkey sees this project not only as an economic but also as a geopolitical project and wants to remove the artificial obstacles created by Armenia. The realization of the Zangezur corridor is of great importance for Ankara in terms of establishing stronger relations with the “Turkish World”.
Russia is cautious about this project in order not to lose its influence in the South Caucasus. For Russia, the Zangezur Corridor has both security and economic significance, but Moscow fears that the Zangezur Corridor will increase the influence of Western countries. However, Russia also supports the integration of the region with transport corridors, as it can also serve Moscow’s own economic interests. Armenia’s hesitating position on the Zangezur issue and tensions in its relations with Russia may change Moscow’s position.
Iran considers this corridor as a potential threat to its borders and influence in the region. Establishing a land connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey through the Zangezur Corridor will limit Iran’s influence in the South Caucasus. Therefore, Iran openly supports Armenia and demonstrates its intention to be an obstacle to the implementation of this project. Iran seeks to protect its interests in the region through Armenia, and the realization of the Zangezur Corridor remains a concern for Tehran.
The USA and European Union countries see this corridor as a project of strategic importance in terms of diversification of transport and logistics systems in the South Caucasus. Although Zangezur Corridor is considered as a step that can contribute to the economic development and stability of the region, the West does not provide enough active support for the realization of this project. Although the USA
Armenia is not required to take concrete measures to speed up the Zangezur project. Instead, the Western countries, which make decisions within the framework of Armenia’s political interests, are actually passive in the Zangezur Corridor project.
…Zangazur Corridor project turns the interests of geopolitical powers in the region into a point of intersection. Armenia’s false promises regarding this project show its insincerity towards peace and economic integration in the region. Azerbaijan and Turkey value this corridor as a tool that will contribute to the development and stability of the region, but Armenia’s obstacles and Iran’s open hostility to this project make it difficult to realize the project. Although Russia supports this corridor, it tries to conduct a balanced policy towards both sides in order not to lose its influence in the region.
The Zangezur Corridor project is one of the most important projects that has increased its strategic importance in the South Caucasus and the Middle East in recent years. This project is a transit and transport corridor initiated by Azerbaijan and Turkey and aims to connect Azerbaijan directly to Europe through Turkey. However, it is observed that this project faces serious obstacles on the way to its realization, especially the resistance of Western countries and big players like France is noteworthy here.
The Zangezur Corridor aims to strengthen the transport links between Turkey and Azerbaijan by connecting the western regions of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This corridor will create an alternative to the energy supply routes of the West in the region and bring great economic benefits to both Azerbaijan and Turkey. At the same time, this corridor is capable of changing the general geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus and, strengthening the integration of the region, creates new threats for Russia and Iran.
Collectively, the West, including the United States and European Union countries, are generally wary of the Zangezur Corridor project. They believe that the project will increase the regional influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan and will have a negative impact on the geopolitical interests of Russia and Iran. Here, France stands out for its position. The main reason for France’s opposition to the corridor is its desire to protect Armenia’s interests and maintain its sphere of influence in the South Caucasus.
French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly stated that “Armenian sovereignty must be respected and projects related to the Zangezur Corridor must be carried out in a way that does not harm Armenia’s interests.” Macron’s statements like this show the intention of the French leadership to maintain the balance of power in the South Caucasus in its favor by protecting the historical, cultural and political relations with Armenia.
France is using several key tactics to thwart this project:
Diplomatic pressure - France, opposing this project both within the framework of the OSCE and the European Union, often brings this issue to the international agenda in order to protect Armenia’s sovereignty.
Support to Armenia - France implements aid packages and various investment projects in order to increase the economic and military strength of Armenia. The French government provided 100 million euros of financial aid to Armenia in 2023, and this is one of the steps taken to strengthen Armenia’s position.
Publicity through the media – The French media, especially through influential press outlets such as Le Monde and France 24, portray the project as a “threat to stability in the region” and often publicize the possible dangers of the project. For example, Le Monde newspaper analyst Pierre Morel called the Zangezur corridor “a serious threat to Armenia’s security.”
Opinions of analysts and experts – French experts are also taking a tough stance on the Zangezur corridor. Jean-Pierre Charpentier, a French international policy researcher and well-known South Caucasus expert, says that “The opening of the Zangezur Corridor will weaken the influence of Russia and Iran in the region, but it will weaken Armenia.”
The figures on the economic potential of the corridor are also impressive. For example, with the opening of the Zangezur corridor, it is predicted that trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Turkey will increase by 30%, and this corridor will bring additional economic benefits to the region of about 2 billion dollars a year. These figures seem quite significant in terms of reducing Europe’s dependence on suppliers such as Russia and Iran for its energy resources, but France and other European countries do not support this project, citing their own geopolitical goals.
The Zangezur Corridor project is an important initiative that has the potential to change the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. The implementation of this
project will increase the regional influence of Azerbaijan and Turkey and provide great advantages both economically and politically. However, the position of France and other Western countries against the corridor and the barrier methods they use create serious difficulties for the project. France considers this corridor to be against the interests of Armenia and its own, and continues to obstruct the project using various diplomatic and information tools. Although the realization of this project is important for the future security and economic development of the region, the position of France and the collective West shows that this path will not be easy.
Geopolitical position of Armenia and could lead to increased tensions in the region.” This reflects a broader apprehension within France regarding the potential consequences of the corridor for Armenia’s sovereignty and security.
Furthermore, France has engaged in a variety of diplomatic initiatives aimed at fostering dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, countering the narrative that the Zangezur Corridor is purely a transportation project. French mediation attempts are often framed within the context of promoting peace, suggesting that any development in the region must consider the security concerns of Armenia and the broader implications for regional stability.
Despite these challenges, the Zangezur Corridor, as envisioned by Azerbaijan and Turkey, continues to hold significant promise. Its successful implementation could enhance economic ties and create a more integrated regional economy. The corridor is intended to provide a vital link for Azerbaijani goods to be transported to Turkey and onward to Europe, thereby bypassing the complexities of the Armenian territory. This economic potential is further underscored by the strategic alignment of interests among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and other Central Asian nations, which perceive the corridor as a route for greater connectivity with the West.
In light of the geopolitical dynamics at play, the realization of the Zangezur Corridor hinges on multiple factors. The interplay of Armenia’s internal political landscape, its relationships with Russia and Iran, and the responses from Western powers like France must be navigated carefully. For Azerbaijan and Turkey, the project represents not only an economic opportunity but also a means to counterbalance Iran’s influence in the region. As discussions evolve, it remains imperative for all stakeholders to strike a balance between economic aspirations and security considerations, ensuring that efforts toward regional connectivity do not further exacerbate existing tensions.