2023-09-08 22:14:00
Where are we really in the fight against climate change? One after the other, reports from the international community warn of the inexorable warming of the planet, already 1.15°C warmer since the pre-industrial era. The report published by the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change this Friday, September 8, stands out for its ambition. A key document provided for by the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, this first “global stocktake” (called “Global Stocktake” in English) calls for a gradual exit from all unexploited fossil fuels. An unprecedented position for the United Nations, which until now had called for a simple reduction in the use of these fuels.
What is the key point of this unprecedented report?
“Much more must be done, on all fronts,” summarizes the UN organization, which notes that “global emissions are not in line with global mitigation trajectories compatible with the temperature objective of the Paris agreement “. The window to “increase ambition and implement existing commitments to limit warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels” exists, but it is “rapidly narrowing”, experts are alarmed.
The goal ? Find out if the world is progressing towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, which calls for keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible at 1. 5°C. An exercise “which aims to ensure that each party respects its part of the bargain, knows where it must go next and how quickly it must act to achieve the objectives”, summarizes Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the UN on climate change .
The first milestone since the signing of the Paris Agreement, this inventory of efforts made by States will be at the heart of the UN climate summit, COP28, which will be held in Dubai at the end of the year. Based on this assessment, countries will have to commit to raising their ambitions and improving their climate action plans, which they will have to submit for review to the UN in 2025.
Will all fossil fuel extraction projects be abandoned?
“For the first time, a UN report calls for leaving fossil fuels in the ground. Countries will inevitably have to decide on this issue at COP28,” rejoices Marine Pouget, responsible for international climate governance at the Réseau Action Climat association. But the English term “unabated”, which can be translated as “whose intensity is reduced”, attached to “fossil fuels”, is debated: does it mean that all fossil fuel extraction projects must be abandoned or only those that would not be associated with a particularly controversial carbon capture technology?
In addition, Marine Pouget would have liked to see “more commitment” from the United Nations, in particular through a call for a complete exit from all fossil fuels by 2050. “That is – not only the abandonment of future operating projects but also the gradual cessation of already operating infrastructures, notes the specialist. It’s an important nuance.” Finally, if the text seems “overall positive”, Marine Pouget deplores that “human rights, like those of indigenous peoples and the question of gender, are very little put forward”. And to emphasize that “climate policies without these principles are not good”.
“In relation to the objectives set, we know that there is no field where we have a triumphant response, we are behind on everything,” remarks Lola Vallejo, director of the climate program at the Development Institute. sustainability and international relations. She still recognizes a step forward: “It is a document which unambiguously calls for an exit from all fossils, that is to say including gas and oil.” And not just coal, the use of which had already been denounced by the UN.
Indeed, to achieve carbon neutrality, “we must transform […] all sectors, in particular by developing renewable energies”, “by gradually eliminating all unexploited fossil fuels”, but also “by putting an end to deforestation”, urges the document. If the greenhouse gas emissions of the United States and Europe (historically responsible for global warming) have been falling for years, those of other countries continue to dangerously increase. According to the 6th IPCC report, global emissions must peak between 2020 and 2025 to limit warming to 1.5°C.
What does the UN recommend to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050?
The report also lists recommendations to improve the situation, such as the need for countries to “set more ambitious targets” to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, and by 60% by 2035 from 2019 levels, ultimately achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 globally.
Unsurprisingly, the text calls on the world to “rapidly” deploy “existing cleaner technologies”, while accelerating “innovation, development and transfer of new technologies, in order to meet the needs of developing countries”. On the financing side, the “strategic” deployment of international public funds remains an “essential catalyst for climate action,” points out the document. A question that should be on the agenda of COP29, scheduled for 2024.
A light is emerging in the nightmare of the climate emergency. “Adaptation plans and commitments are increasingly ambitious,” recognizes the United Nations, even if most of the efforts observed are “sectoral and unevenly distributed between regions.”
How did the experts go about developing this report?
This assessment is the result of a long process of collecting information from IPCC reports, the UN climate experts, but also from governments and non-governmental organizations who met during “three technical dialogues” , details Lola Vallejo. All areas of climate action were reviewed: reducing emissions but also adapting to present and future impacts, irreversible losses from climate change, mobilizing financial flows and investments necessary for the energy transition, etc.
For his part, the physicist and researcher Philippe Ciais is skeptical and denounces a “tinkering”: “This system has holes in the racket. Not all countries regularly and accurately report their emissions. According to him, some do not have data, others do not have recent ones. “Similarly, the OECD countries and a few others have a common methodology for reporting their emissions, the others do not.”
After the hottest summer ever measured in the world, marked by multiple heatwaves, floods, fires and other extreme weather events, the most important thing will be “what comes out of COP28,” says Lola Vallejo. World leaders will have the choice between ignoring the emergency and leading humanity into the unknown, or implementing ambitious policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Article updated at 8:33 p.m.
#unveils #assessment #Paris #agreement #Libération