2023-05-10 05:50:03
- Abdujalil Abdurasulov and Zhanna Bezpiatchuk
- BBC News, Vinnytsia, Ukraine
image source, Juice
Ukrainian pilots rely on Soviet-era planes in their fight to control the skies.
“Missile detected. Move!”
The order from the Ukrainian team on the ground is clear: a Russian Su-35 fighter jet has fired a missile at the fighter flown by Silk.
The pilot now knows that he has to abort the mission in order to survive.
Silk, which is not the pilot’s name but his callsign, quickly drops his MiG-29 at such a low level that you can see the treetops.
The old plane designed during the Soviet era starts to shake when you push it to the limit. Silk navigates through the towers and hills that he meticulously studied on a map when he was preparing for this mission.
“These flights close to the surface are the most difficult,” he explains. “You need a lot of concentration. And because of the low altitude, you don’t have the time or space for a safe ejection.”
Ukrainian ground-attack jets are accompanied by fighter jets like Silk’s during their front-line missions.
Silk’s job is to protect against Russian air-to-air missiles. But the truth is that Ukrainian planes can’t do much to shoot them down.
“Our biggest enemy is the Russian fighter jets Su-35“, says Juice, who drives another MiG-29.
“We know the (Russian) air defense positions, we know their ranges. They are quite predictable, so we can calculate how long we can stay (within their zone). But in the case of fighter jets, they are mobile. They have a good aerial image and they know when we are flying forward.“.
image source, Ashore
Russian missiles can fly much further than the missiles used by Ukrainian pilots.
Russian air patrols can detect a plane taking off deep inside Ukrainian territory.
Its R-37M missiles can hit an air target at a distance of 150-200 km, while Ukrainian rockets can only travel up to 50 km.
This is why Russian planes can detect Ukrainian ships and shoot them down long before they pose a threat.
“Razor’s Edge”
Since the start of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian Air Force has suffered heavy losses, although no hard figures have been released.
Russia’s claim that they have destroyed more than 400 Ukrainian aircraft does not seem plausible, given that independent estimates of the size of the Ukrainian fleet are at least half that number.
The IISS Military Balance 2022 report states that the Ukrainian Air Force had 124 aircraft combat-capable before the Russian invasion.
To end Russia’s air superiority, Ukraine wants its Western partners to provide more modern aircraft like the US-made F-16.
“Our pilots fly on a knife-edge,” says Colonel Volodymyr Lohachov, head of the aviation development department of the Ukrainian Air Force.
“But the F-16 jets would allow us operate beyond of the enemy’s air defense systems”.
BBC
Our pilots fly on a razor’s edge… F-16s would allow us to operate beyond enemy air defense systems.”
Missiles from F-16 aircraft can have a range of up to 150 km. This would allow the Ukrainian pilots to attack Russian planes.
“Of course, we will continue to be a target,” Juice says. “But it will be an equal fight. At the moment no we can answer no way”.
No warning system
F-16s also have better radars that can detect missiles fired at them. Currently, the equipment that monitors ground-based radars must communicate verbally with pilots about the threats they are facing.
“Our planes don’t have a system to warn of (Russian rocket) launches,” says an Su-25 pilot with the call sign Pumbaa.
“Everything is visual. If you see them, just you try to escape shooting heat traps and maneuvering”.
Russian air superiority means that Ukraine can only afford a limited deployment of its military aviation close to the front line, which can have a major impact on the success of any future counter-offensive operations.
According to Juice, they do up to 20 times less departures than the Russian Air Force.
And the weapons carried on the Ukrainian attack planes come from the inventory of old Soviet-era bombs and rockets, which are rapidly depleting due to tight supplies.
But it’s not just about air support for ground troops. Western planes can also improve Ukraine’s air defense systems, according to aviation experts.
“Our planes have old radars that cruise missiles don’t see (Russians). We act like blind cats trying to bring them down,” Colonel Lohachov explains.
image source, Ashore
Ukraine would need to upgrade all of its airfields if it received F-16s, as these planes need longer runways to take off.
The variety of Western weapons that F-16s can carry would allow them to intercept cruise missiles “from long distances right at our borders, instead of intercepting them somewhere in the center of Ukraine,” says Juice.
The MiG-29 planes that Poland and Slovakia have recently transferred to Ukraine do not solve its main problems, according to the Ukrainian pilots.
They are planes that have the same old weapons and the same limited capacity as the current Ukrainian fleet.
But the US administration has ruled out sending F-16s to Ukraine.
Many worry that providing Ukraine with Western aircraft could escalate the conflict, dragging the United States and Europe straight into war.
Even Ukrainian pilots have not been approved for training to fly these planes.
In fact, Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s undersecretary for defense policy, claimed that even “fastest timeline” to deliver F-16s would be 18 months and therefore there was no point in training pilots early.
image source, Pump’s
Neither Russia nor Ukraine have managed to gain full control of the skies in war.
However, Ukrainian officials hope to obtain these planes from European countries, which would still require US consent, but would be much quicker to deliver.
As for the training of pilots, “we can afford to send only a certain number of people for a limited period at any given time. We must avoid reducing our military capabilities here,” says Colonel Lohachov.
So the best option, he adds, is to start sending small groups now to have enough pilots trained when the planes arrive.
It is clear that these planes will not be delivered in time for the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Doubts about the impact of the F-16
President Volodymyr Zelensky has already announced that this operation will be carried out without waiting for Western planes.
Some experts question the impact the F-16s could have in this war.
image source, Ashore
Ukraine would need to upgrade all of its airfields if it received F-16s, as they need longer runways to take off.
Professor Justin Bronk, a senior fellow at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), says these ships would provide an extra layer of defense but “won’t change the war on their own.”
Even with F-16s, “Ukrainian pilots would still have to fly very low anywhere near the front lines because of the ground threat from Russia and that would limit the effective range of the missiles,” explains Professor Bronk.
“And it also means that employ air power the way the West did in wars like Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, it’s not possible in Ukraine.”
Logistical challenges raise questions about whether sending F-16s to Ukraine is worth the effort.
It is not just about training pilots and mechanics: the infrastructure must also be improved.
F-16s are designed to very smooth and long tracks. Ukraine will have to adapt its current airfields to meet those requirements: resurfacing, cleaning and expanding them.
“But doing that will be visible to the Russians from space and through human intelligence sources,” Prof Bronk argues. “And if you only do one or two bases, and then try to establish ground support to operate an F-15 or an F-16, then the Russians will see and attack.”
“You would have to build a lot of airfields. That’s when the question arises: is it worth the number of qualified personnel and the amount of political effort and logistical support that could otherwise be used for other things like tanks, artillery or air defense systems? on land?”
For now, Ukrainian drivers like Pumbaa, Silk and Juice they will have to rely on their old fighters and Soviet-era attack aircraft.
When an alarm signals that there is a new combat mission, they rush to their planes. They give the go-ahead to the mechanics to confirm that all systems on board are working.
Some of them have flown more than 100 combat missions. But they know that each flight could be the last.
image source, Getty Images
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