2024-03-14 08:53:29
The US Department of Energy sharply increased its forecast for the price of Brent oil for both 2024 and 2025 due to the extension of production restrictions by OPEC+ countries, Day.Az reports with reference to Interfax.
As follows from a new report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the forecast for the price of Brent oil in 2024 has been increased from $82.42/barrel. up to $87/bbl.
“As a result of the OPEC+ extension of oil production cuts, we have lowered our forecast for global oil production growth in 2024. Lower growth contributes to the significant decline in global oil inventories in our forecast for the second quarter of 2024,” the report said.
The forecast for oil prices in 2025 was raised from $79.48/barrel. to $84.8/bbl.
“We expect a tighter oil market balance in 2024 to keep Brent prices above current levels, averaging $88 per barrel in Q2 2024, up $4 per barrel from last month’s report. We expect “that the price will remain relatively flat until the end of the year before rising inventories (when OPEC+ production cuts expire) begin to put slight downward pressure on the price in 2025,” the report said.
The EIA noted that the outlook remains highly uncertain. Thus, “although no oil production was lost due to attacks on commercial ships traveling through the Red Sea, production could still be disrupted or some oil production in the Middle East could be stopped, which would likely lead to higher oil prices “.
“It also remains to be seen how strictly the latest round of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts will be adhered to, which could potentially add additional oil supplies back to the market and reduce expected short-term oil production tensions,” the US Department of Energy said.
According to the new forecast, global oil production in 2024 will be 102.17 million b/d (previous forecast – 102.3 million b/d) compared to 101.79 million b/d in 2023 (101.75 million b/d – previous estimate). For 2025, the forecast has not changed – 104.17 million bpd.
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