2023-05-11 16:05:00
What boundaries can the alleged Ukrainian offensive reach? Is the recent reduction in the number of Russian troops in Belarus the result of rotation or a new policy of Moscow? Is it possible that an attack from Belarus on Ukraine will again become relevant for the Kremlin? Alleged attacks by Ukrainian troops on Crimea and Russian territory — what are the advantages and disadvantages of such a strategy?
To these questions Yuri Drakakhrusta an Israeli military expert answers on the Svaboda Premium channel David Handelman.
– Now everyone is waiting for the Ukrainian offensive. What is the arrangement of forces on the eve of it? What are the advantages and disadvantages of one and the other side?
— According to experts’ estimates, Russia now has up to 400,000 personnel at the front, including the reserve, 1,800 tanks, and more than 4,000 armored fighting vehicles.
Since Ukraine is operating on its territory, it is unclear which part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is on the front line. It is believed that there are about 800,000 members of the USU; taking into account the National Guard, the police, and border guards, it is 1,200,000.
But the question is: how much will be involved in the offensive. Different experts name different numbers – from 50 to 200 thousand.
It is difficult to estimate the number of tanks that Ukraine has. There were Western deliveries, but it is not known how many anti-tank tanks from those that were in Ukraine before.
Ukraine has been preparing new brigades and corps for about six months.
– Before the Ukrainian offensive, did one of the sides (or both) have some “miracle weapon” that could change the course of hostilities? At one time, the appearance of USU HIMARS had a significant impact on the situation on the battlefield. Now, does anyone have something new like this?
– One hundred percent “miracle weapon” does not exist. HIMARS had their effect, in part they are still quite effective, although the Russians interfere with the operation of these complexes, creating obstacles to the operation of GPS.
We see that in the latest USU strikes on Crimea, not only drones are used, but also Ukrainian Grom-2 operational-tactical missiles. Officially, they are still under development, but in fact they are already being used. And here is the question: in what quantity are they accumulated. The range of these missiles is several hundreds of kilometers.
We also see an increase in the intensity of Ukrainian drone strikes. According to Russian reports, there were 20 drone strikes in Crimea on May 7. And this despite the fact that the offensive has not yet begun.
If it starts, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a simultaneous strike by several hundred drones. This will not lead to the immediate defeat of Russia, but we may see something unexpected in a specific operative direction.
Although for their part, the Russians are also receiving intelligence and strengthening their defenses.
– And when will this offensive begin?
— The Ukrainian command does not say when or where it will start. There are signs that it will start soon. Ukrainian air defense forces are moving closer to the front line, not only the newly formed brigades, but also ammunition depots are being transferred there. Russian air and missile strikes in the front-line zone have increased. It can also be connected with an attempt, if not to stop the Ukrainian offensive, then at least to break the plans of the Ukrainian staff.
— The other day, an article appeared in the Washington Post, quoting the words of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov: do not place too much hope on this offensive. At the political level, it is said that Ukraine’s goal in the war is to return to the borders of 1991. Sometimes they talk about the defeat of Russia as a goal. And at the same time, such caution, as in Reznikov’s statement. What are the achievable goals of the future offensive?
Will USU liberate Melitopol, Mariupol? Will USU go to the shores of the Sea of Azov, which Putin declared an “inner Russian sea”? Will USU liberate Donetsk, Luhansk, Simferopol? What are the probabilities of different scenarios?
– Cautionary statements of the minister Reznikova do not contradict the installation for victory. It’s just that this offensive should not be expected to be the “last and decisive battle” that will end with Ukraine’s victory.
During the attack, it is possible to shift the direction of the main blow. We saw this last year, when the offensive began in the Kherson direction, and then the main one was in the Kharkiv direction.
From the point of view of military theory, perhaps it is worth betting not so much on reaching some frontiers, but on the defeat of Russian troops. If the main direction of the offensive will be on the Sea of Azov with the severing of the land corridor to Crimea, then this offensive can be considered successful. This will drastically change the entire strategic situation on the front. The position of Russian troops in Crimea will become very difficult. But it is premature to say that this will lead to the return of Crimea to Ukraine.
In Russia, they drew conclusions from the Kharkiv operation of the USU. Mobilization was carried out, now the Russian group there is twice as large as it was during the Kharkiv operation.
The Russians could draw conclusions from the Kharkiv operation, perhaps they will now defend themselves more skillfully. But if we judge only by the balance of forces of the parties, then there are chances for the success of the Ukrainian offensive.
– Since October, there have been no rocket attacks from the territory of Belarus. According to the Ukrainian military, there are about 3,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus. A few months ago, according to Lukashenka, there were 10 or even 15 thousand of them. Is this a result of the rotation, or is there some other reason?
– In recent months, the role of Belarus was to provide training grounds for Russian troops. The current reduction in the number of Russian soldiers in Belarus may indeed be just a rotation: some have been trained and taken to the front, others will soon be taken. The Ukrainian General Staff has been reporting for several months that there are no signs of the formation of offensive groups of the enemy on the territory of Belarus.
Those Russian troops that are in Belarus are air defense and mobilized troops that undergo training on training grounds. But the presence of even a small Russian group plus the Belarusian army forces the Ukrainian side to keep significant forces in the north. Although there cannot be a significant offensive from the north now, because there is no strike group. But small acts of sabotage can be done at least every day.
For Russia, the benefit of the Belarusian platform is that it diverts Ukrainian forces to the north. It does not look like the situation will drastically change in the near future.
In recent months, we have not seen a large-scale Russian offensive even where Russia has concentrated strike groups. All we saw were small “gnawings” in the area of Bakhmut and Avdeyevka. In order to advance from Belarus, it is necessary to create a strike group there. It is not a fact that Russia is ready to allocate forces for this.
Of course, this would draw additional Ukrainian forces to the north. But the hypothetical formation of a Russian strike group in Belarus would weaken the existing Russian front in Ukraine.
— According to the Global Firepower research center, which measures the comparative military power of the countries of the world, Ukraine rose from 22nd to 15th place in a year. Russia remained on the 2nd place. Can such calculations be considered adequate? On the other hand, where was the Afghan Mujahideen army? And the Soviet army was probably the second largest in the world at that time. But who won the war then? What do these rankings mean in general?
— When compiling the Global Firepower indices, both military and economic parameters are taken into account. Therefore, it is clear why Russia remained in the same place. It had losses of military equipment and weapons, but not significant enough to change its place in the ranking. Ukraine mobilized a lot of people, received a lot of equipment and weapons from the West. This affected her place in the ranking.
But you rightly noted that the places in the ranking do not directly determine who will win in an armed conflict.
– The next question is about the attacks on Crimea and on the territory of Russia: the Crimean bridge, Saki, Belgorod region, Engels, Moscow region, Kremlin. Ukraine denies its involvement, although not very convincingly. Mikhail Padalyak commented on the attack by Kremlin drones, paraphrasing Putin’s cynical phrase about Crimea in 2014 – drones can be bought at any military store.
The Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, published the program last autumn article , in which he made it clear that Ukraine would attack Russian territory. And why? The damage from such strikes by Russia is small. At the same time, undesirable consequences are in plain sight. These are retaliatory actions — strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure after the attack on the Crimean bridge, current strikes on Kiev in response to the Kremlin’s attack. In addition, there is a risk that attacks on Russia may cause a wave of public mobilization there, as if they attacked “Russian land”. These consequences are not taken into account in Kiev?
– These factors are taken into account. But Worthy in the mentioned article he wrote that Russia is waging war the way it is waging it because of impunity. It would have carried out missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine even without attacks on the territory of Russia. Now the Russians call one or another of their strikes retaliatory strikes. But since this war was started by Russia, calling it retaliatory strikes is just propaganda.
Attacking the enemy on a tactical, operational, and if possible, on a strategic level, is the alphabet of military science. If there is an opportunity to do it, it should be done. The Russian air defense system is simply incapable of covering the entire vast territory of the Russian Federation. The installation of “Armors” on buildings in Moscow, as we can see, did not help much against drones.
The enemy is attacking the entire depth of the Ukrainian rear. Ukraine does not have the opportunity to attack the entire Russian territory up to Vladivostok. But where there are opportunities, from a military point of view, they should be used.
As for the possibility of a popular uprising in Russia in response to such attacks, it is not a fact that the public reaction will be exactly that. Russia is already doing everything it can against Ukraine. And it is unlikely to lead to motivation – well, now we will start fighting for real.
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