The coronavirus pandemic has created an unprecedented situation in world football. Many countries suspended the championships in March, and it is still not clear when the season will be finished. Clubs, like companies in other industries, are losing revenue. This will lead to a decrease in the transfer cost of players, which has grown strongly in recent years, according to a report from KPMG.
The company assessed how the pandemic will affect club revenues and player values in 10 European leagues – Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Turkey, as well as the English Premier League and the Championship (the second most important division after the Premier League). league).
In recent years, clubs have spent more and more money on acquiring footballers. In 2019, during the summer transfer window, clubs from the top five European Championships (England, Germany, Spain, Italy and France) spent a record 5.5 billion euros on this, according to Deloitte. 900 million euros more than a year earlier.
Now clubs may have to cut costs. According to KPMG, the total financial losses of clubs from the top five leagues in Europe could exceed 4 billion euros in the worst-case scenario (the season will not be played out, which will cause clubs to lose ticket revenues and part of the money from TV broadcasts). In the second scenario – the remaining matches will be played at least with empty stands – the losses may be 3-5 times less.
In France, the Professional Football League (LFP) has already announced the early end of the season. A similar decision has been made in a number of other countries, for example the Netherlands. But the fate of most championships, as well as international tournaments of the UEFA Champions League and Europa League, has not yet been decided. The first, already in May, to resume matches is going to the Bundesliga. If the season in Europe is not completed by the end of June, this will increase the uncertainty, as players’ contracts with clubs usually expire on 30 June. In addition, the dates of the summer transfer window opening July 1 may be shifted.
In the worst of the two scenarios, the combined value of 4183 footballers from 10 leagues will decrease by € 10 billion (26.5% compared to February), in a more favorable scenario – by € 6.6 billion (17.7%), according to KPMG estimates. Its specialists believe that the cost of stars, young players and footballers with long-term contracts will decrease the least of all.
If in February there were 15 players in these leagues more than 100 million euros, now there will be only eight in the first scenario and 11 in the second. However, the rating of the 20 most expensive footballers according to KPMG will hardly change. Thus, it will continue to be headed by Paris Saint-Germain striker Kylian Mbappé, but its cost may drop from 225 million to 177 million euros.
The purchases of football players this summer are likely to be less, and the size of transactions will decrease, according to KPMG experts. Clubs may be more likely to loan or trade players. “I can’t shake the feeling that rumors of some players going over hundreds of millions of pounds this summer are out of touch with reality,” Ed Woodward, vice president of Mancherster United, recently told his club’s fans.
If we talk about the total cost of the squad, the only club that will have it in excess of 1 billion euros will be Manchester City, but only if the season in England is finished, according to the KPMG report. Before the pandemic, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona also boasted compositions worth over 1 billion euros.
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