Russia’s struggle to conquer southern Ukraine is intended to create an important strategic territorial sequence that will allow it to have full control over the Black Sea, natural treasures and important energy sources in the region. Along with cutting off Ukraine’s access to its strategic ports and blocking its main trade and economic arteries, the head of the Kremlin aims to take control of huge reserves of natural gas, along with rare minerals, chief among them the “white gold” – lithium.
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This metal, whose global demand is expected to jump by about 250%, is an essential component in the batteries of electronic equipment. It was recently announced that Ukraine has one of the largest lithium reserves in the world, which is already an attractive destination for international companies from Europe, Australia and China, operating in growing industries, including electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. These facts, which stand before Putin’s eyes, influence his aggressive policy against Ukraine, while he works to strengthen Russia’s energy strength and its geopolitical position in the international arena.
Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, is rich in reserves of energy sources and rare minerals, primarily lithium, cobalt and nickel, alongside a wide variety of natural resources including oil, coal and natural gas. Blocking its ports in the Black Sea, through which it supplies these valuable raw materials and goods to the European Union, as well as agricultural goods to Africa and the Middle East, is a huge economic challenge for it.
Worse than that, the occupation of the southern regions of the country, where most of the natural treasures and resources on which the Ukrainian economy is based, may be a real threat to its existence. Publications of the Ukrainian government show that the share of the iron industry constitutes 22.4% of its total exports in 2021, and that the share of the food industry is higher than 30%. It is true that part of the export of goods is now done by train, but it is not a matter of harming efficiency or disruptions that will apply only to the supply chains. The Russian military, which is deliberately bombing critical transport infrastructure and power plants across Ukraine, is systematically destroying its alternative trade and transport routes.
the jewel in the crown
If that’s not enough, along the Black Sea coast of Ukraine there are rich and unspoiled deposits of natural treasures that hold enormous energy and economic potential. It is estimated that these reservoirs are significantly larger than its onshore gas reserves, which total approximately one trillion cubic meters.
A Russian takeover of them, as well as the Russian gas pipeline that runs through the cities of Odessa and Mykolaiv and exits through the city of Orlivka, which is located near the Ukraine-Romania border, will provide the Kremlin with an important geostrategic achievement and increase the scope of Moscow’s energy sources and power resources. In addition, those who look at the map of Ukraine will notice that most of the local and foreign companies in its renewable energy industry, which include the development and production of wind turbines and solar panels, are located in the south of the country.
All this in addition to two central nuclear power plants that include the largest nuclear facility in Europe located in Zaporizhia. Although it has been controlled by Russia since the beginning of the war, this station is at high risk of an ecological and humanitarian disaster in view of the heavy shelling it has been receiving recently from the Russian army. Undoubtedly, it is an attractive target used as Putin’s “weapon” against the governments of Kyiv and the West.
The head of the Kremlin, motivated by cost-effectiveness considerations, is well aware of Ukraine’s variety of energy sources. One of the most important resources found in the southeast of the country is the mineral reserves – lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel – which are considered its “disappearing treasure”. These minerals, which are considered hidden, are found along a large geographical area known as the “Ukrainian shield”, which extends diagonally from the upper corner of Ukraine, to the southeast.
Meanwhile, lithium is considered the “jewel in the crown” due to its enormous value and importance for the production of batteries used in various electronics industries including cell phones, laptop computers, solar panels, drones, electric cars, as well as for renewable energy storage purposes.
Since it was discovered at the end of the 1940s of the last century, and especially in view of the invention of portable electronics and the development of electric motors, the global demand for lithium has increased year by year. According to estimates, the demand for lithium is expected to grow by more than 250% in the next five years and rise from 300 thousand tons in 2020 to one million tons in 2025.
Lithium is a natural resource that does not exist in its original configuration, but in combination with other minerals. Huge deposits of billions of tons of lithium are submerged in the seabed, and according to various reports, about 70% of the lithium reserves found around the world are currently in Chile, China, Argentina and Australia. In addition, various countries, primarily Portugal, Brazil, the USA and Zimbabwe, have large reserves of the lithium mineral spodumene.
Alongside this, Ukrainian researchers recently published that huge reserves of about 500,000 tons of lithium oxide are currently found in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and in the “Ukrainian Shield” region, and that the highest concentrations of it are found near Mariupol. In other words, Putin’s neighbor has a huge potential to become one of the leading lithium producers in the world. This reflects the great energy importance of Ukraine and the enormous economic potential inherent in the conquest of its resources, which are a critical “gold mine” in the eyes of the Russian president.
These facts provide an explanation for the aggressive policy of the head of the Kremlin and are a catalyst that urges him to take control of its vast energy sources at any cost. All this with the aim of securing the energy reserves and upgrading Russia’s position in the global energy market, despite and due to the harsh sanctions imposed on it and its international isolation.
geopolitical implications
From a broad geopolitical, security and economic point of view, it is not for nothing that Putin is fighting for the occupation of the southern coastline of Ukraine, alongside areas of strategic importance in the east, despite the counterattacks of the Ukrainian army, which have recently focused on the area of the city of Kherson.
These moves, leading in the short term to the strangulation of the Ukrainian trade and economy, are going to fundamentally damage its security and its economic and energy independence. On the other hand, the occupation and annexation of the territories, even if a cease-fire agreement is signed between the parties, is expected to lead to a significant increase in the volume of energy reserves and critical minerals that will be under Russian control. These are expected to provide it with energy security, improve its economic situation and help establish its position as an energy power along with being a nuclear power.
Moreover, taking control of energy sources and strategic raw materials puts the Kremlin in a new and better position vis-a-vis the US and the West, as well as vis-à-vis China. As a leading oil and gas producer in the world that supplies approximately 30% of the natural gas to the European Union, Russia will take advantage of the energy dependence of Europe is in it for blackmail against them and against the USA.
Many of the European governments are already facing complex economic challenges, and this is before the worsening of the global energy crisis expected for the winter. In addition, Russian control of strategic energy sources and other natural resources with an emphasis on lithium deposits, which are a critical component of China’s economy, is expected to affect Moscow’s complex relationship with the government in Beijing.
This situation may reduce its economic dependence on China and even significantly expand the cooperation between them in the energy sector, this in view of China’s control of approximately 80% of the global supply chain for lithium-ion batteries. Such a scenario, which many experts fear, could intensify the geopolitical tensions with the US, which would slide into a sanctions war and increase the rivalry between the powers.
The author is an expert on geopolitics and international crises.