President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, may be deposed if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, according to a former Russian diplomat quoted today (Monday) in “Newsweek”. According to Boris Bondarev, who resigned from his position as an arms control expert at Russia’s diplomatic mission in Geneva amid the invasion of Ukraine last year, “He can be replaced, Putin is not a superhero. He has no superpowers, he is just an ordinary dictator.”
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“If we look at history, we see that such dictators have been replaced from time to time. Usually, if they lose a war and can no longer satisfy the needs of their supporters – they usually end their job,” he explains.
Bondarev believes that if the Russians realize that the war is lost, and that Putin has nothing more to offer them, they will feel disappointed. “They may think that they don’t need Putin anymore. I think that once they part with the illusions and find themselves in a new reality where Putin can no longer provide anything but fear and a kind of threat of oppression of his people – that will change the situation,” he says.
Three possible scenarios
Dr. Vlad Mikhanenko of the University of Oxford, who has extensively studied the post-communist and Soviet era, presented three potential scenarios for a Russian defeat. “A lot depends on the manner of the defeat,” he explains.
The first scenario, according to him, includes a chaotic retreat that could be caused by “a Ukrainian attack that will hit one or more fronts and lead to panic among the 600,000 Russians who live in the Crimea and Russia’s collaborators who are in the Donbass. This will lead to a rapid collapse.”
Fresh recruits to the Russian army (Photo: Reuters)
The second possible scenario he presents involves a withdrawal from combat reminiscent of the events of the First World War. “This is a situation similar to the situation that led to the collapse of the Russian army in 1916-1917. The current slow war of attrition continues for a long time, with the Russian soldiers relying on equipment in very poor condition. They spend months and months in cold, muddy trenches under Ukrainian barrages, which could lead to mass desertion.” .
According to Michanenko’s third scenario, the war will continue for two more years with increasing discontent in Russia, which will lead to a slow Russian withdrawal in some places: “In this case the economic elites will try to negotiate with Putin on an agreement to declare victory and pass the baton to his successor.”
“Unlike the first two scenarios, in the last scenario Putin still has a bargaining chip and a chance to save himself,” Michanenko concludes.