2023-08-26 20:55:36
by Paolo Valentino
The adviser to the Russian president: “Aid to Kiev will drop, because thinking that Moscow will be satisfied with Crimea and Donbass is an illusion: it will not be able to accept Ukrainian entry into NATO”
«The failure of the Prigozhin rebellion and its end strengthen the stability of the system. Putin is now stronger, he has full control over the entire military and security apparatus and can look forward to the 2024 elections, when he will surely be re-elected with an overwhelming majority ».
Dmitry Suslov heads the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, one of the most important Russian institutes where the Kremlin’s foreign policy is thought out.
The Ukrainian offensive is proceeding slowly, what does this change for Russia?
«The so-called Ukrainian counter-offensive has actually failed and this is a game changer not only for us, but for the entire conflict. In fact, it played a key role in the Western plan. The intention was to cut the bridge linking Russia to Crimea, reach the Sea of Azov and force Russia to the negotiating table, where a compromise could be found that reflected more the interests of Ukraine and the West than those of Russia. For example, forcing Moscow to withdraw its forces to the February 24 positions. Now it is clear that this will not happen, it is physically impossible to force Russia to withdraw through military means. Not now, much less next year, when it is very unlikely that the West will be able to provide Ukraine with a quantity of ammunition and weapons comparable to those supplied so far: Western aid to Kiev will be much less.
But will Russia take advantage of this situation to launch its own offensive?
“I do not believe. I think there won’t be a massive Russian strategic initiative on the ground.”
Why?
“To do that, a new wave of official mobilization would be needed. The informal one continues, but it is functional to conduct an offensive defense or small-scale attacks such as the one underway in Kupiansk, in the East. However, it would not be enough for a full-scale offensive. At the beginning of next year there will be presidential elections, Putin will certainly be a candidate and he wants to avoid a new mobilization on the model of the one launched last year. It would be unpopular. Therefore I exclude that for the next few months and until spring Moscow will launch any major offensive”.
If this were the case, could one imagine that the conditions were created for some form of negotiation?
“In theory, yes. But the ball is in the US court. It’s up to the Biden administration to decide. There are two alternatives: the first is a negotiation that leads to an armistice even without a political agreement. The other is the continuation of the war, perhaps at low intensity. It is the Kremlin’s belief that the White House prefers the latter to the former, since the prevailing consensus in America is that the costs of continuing the war for the United States are lower than those of an armistice or a political agreement, both of which would appear to be a defeat for the collective West and for America. There are no American soldiers dying in Ukraine, so the price of continuing the war is acceptable to the White House even without the prospect of victory. The example is that of Afghanistan: the Obama administration already concluded in 2009 that it was impossible to win, but the United States withdrew its troops only 12 years later. In Ukraine the Americans don’t even fight, they only provide weapons, training and intelligence. In any case, any change in US policy in Ukraine is linked to a change of administration after next year’s elections. Without this, they will not switch lines.’
But under what conditions would Moscow be ready to negotiate?
«There is a belief that Russia only cares about the territories, that it would be ready to accept a ceasefire if it kept control of the Donbass, as well as of course the Crimea. It is not so. Moscow has by no means forgotten its broader political demands, such as limits on military cooperation between Kiev and NATO. For Russia, both Kiev’s entry into NATO and the so-called Israel option, which would strengthen Ukraine militarily without making it join the Alliance, remain unacceptable. If this is what the West thinks, we will have no choice but to continue the war of attrition for as long as necessary.”
Can you afford it? The economy is not so good, the ruble has collapsed.
«It is true that there are some problems, but they are not critical issues, they are rather cyclical tensions. The growing debt due to the war effort is at the root of the ruble’s fall, but it is absolutely sustainable. Consumption is holding up, the military-industrial complex is working at full capacity. And we are by no means isolated in the world as demonstrated by the recent BRICS summit. We are fighting a difficult war, but we have the resources to continue it. The question is whether Ukraine can afford it. They have enormous mobilization problems, the infrastructure is in pieces and Western aid will no longer be at the levels seen so far”.
August 26, 2023 (change August 26, 2023 | 20:55)
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