The terrifying prospect of China sending arms to Russia seems more and more possible. However, there are skeptics who doubt that China will undertake such an escalation. US officials say they have information that shows that the Asian country is considering doing so and that they could even make that information public to reinforce their arguments.
China is the key player that has allowed Putin to carry on with his battle, be it global trade figures, the sale of critical components for the Russian defense industry, diplomatic support or military cooperation. While their tactics may not always align, the two work hand in hand, as a marriage of convenience entered into in support of each other’s key interests, and in opposition to an international system they see as dominated by Washington and wish to reformat.
The existence of a Sino-Russian axis was already evident in the Putin-Xi summit ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics, after which the leaders issued a joint statement outlining their countries’ opposition to further NATO enlargement. This came just weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the two announced a strategic partnership that promised “no off-limits areas of cooperation.” While Chinese support hasn’t lived up to expectations, Beijing hasn’t stood by. .
But right now there is a red line drawn with fire and the chinese will cross it if they supply arms to their friends. If you believe the US Secretary of State, Antony Blink, China’s relatively neutral stance towards the conflict could be about to change. At the Munich Security Conference, Blinken stated that, in his meeting with the Chinese State Councilor, Wang Yitransferred his “deep concern” over the “possibility of Russia providing lethal material support to Russia”. He later specified that he was referring to weapons and ammunition in the “lethal” category. Blinken did not say what the source of his information was, or whether Wang had reacted in any way to it.
China denies it. Now, if the day comes when If Beijing opens up to supplying weapons, it will redefine world politics in a way that has not been seen since the Cold War. Doing so would further decimate any remaining relationship with the United States, since the The Biden government has described this issue as a “red line” in their bilateral relations. Not to mention that the two nations have yet to repair the diplomatic damage caused by Chinese spy balloon that floated across North America earlier this month.
However, the newspaperThe mirror” He points out that Moscow is considering commissioning a Chinese manufacturer to mass-produce the drones, with an expected delivery date starting in April. The report details that, Xian Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technologya Chinese drone manufacturer, is poised to manufacture 100 prototypes of its unmanned ZT-180, and which carries a 35-50 kg warhead.
Drones are similar to Shahed-136 Iranian, which the Russians have used to annihilate hundreds of Ukrainians and damage infrastructure. The report, citing sources familiar with the matter, claims that Bingo plans to establish a drone production facility in Russia.
China has so far refrained from transferring weapons and other military items to Russia, but it has gone further by provide a number of dual-use items and critical spare parts or components which may not explicitly fall into the military category. She has rejected unilateral US and European sanctions against Russia, but has been careful not to violate them where she herself would be vulnerable to subsequent sanctions.
China’s frustration with Russia is clearly on the rise. The conflict has left Beijing in an exceptionally awkward position. A short, sharp war toppling the pro-Western Ukrainian government – that is, what Putin seems to have originally hoped for – would certainly have been a major victory for China, seriously undermining the unity and influence of the Western liberal order he also seeks to overthrow. .
In general, war is becoming more and more a diplomatic disaster for Beijing, contributing to bring the perception of his image to historical lows throughout the world. In particular, he has shattered the close ties he had with Europe.
All this points to the possibility of an imminent turn in X’s policyYo. This is not to say that he is going to throw Putin under the horses’ feet anytime soon: his high-level “friendship” would make this disastrous for his credibility.
However, a recent analysis reveals that it could be sending critical components such as “navigational equipment, jamming technology and fighter jet parts to government-owned sanctioned Russian defense companies“. Although the Asian giant is not the only country that helps Putin to circumvent Western sanctions, it is the main facilitator.
Besides, China is already financing the Kremlin by increasing imports of oil, gas and agricultural products Russians rejected by the West. He is building a new gas pipeline to China from Russia and supplying “dual-use” technologylike drones, supposedly for civilian use but used by the Russians for reconnaissance.
Meanwhile, China has been stealthily building up its own nuclear strike force. It is expected that by 2035 it will have 1,500 ready warheads to fire, each with a destructive power that dwarfs the bombs dropped in 1945 on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Although according to its Chinese Defense Minister, “the country firmly follows a self-defensive nuclear strategy, the objective of which is to maintain strategic national security by deterring other countries from using or threatening to use atomic weapons against its territory.”