2023-10-18 10:56:50
Photovoltaic panels – UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
MADRID, 18 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The world may have crossed a “tipping point” that will inevitably make solar energy our main source of energy.
New research, based on a data-driven model of technology and economics, concludes that solar photovoltaics are likely to become the dominant energy source by 2050, even without the support of more ambitious climate policies.
However, warns that four “barriers” could hinder this: the creation of stable electricity grids, the financing of solar energy in developing economies, the capacity of supply chains and the political resistance of regions that lose jobs.
The researchers say, in an article published in Nature Communicationsthat policies that address these barriers may be more effective than pricing instruments, such as carbon taxes, in accelerating the transition to clean energy.
The study, led by the University of Exeter and University College London, is part of the Economics of Energy Innovation and Systems Transition (EEIST) project.
“Recent progress in renewable energy means that projections dominated by fossil fuels are no longer realistic,” he said. it’s a statement Dr Femke Nijsse, Exeter Global Systems Institute.
“However, older projections are often based on models that see innovation as something that happens outside the economy. In reality, there is a virtuous circle between the technologies that are implemented and the companies that learn to do it more economic”.
“When you include this cycle in projections, you can map the rapid growth of solar energy over the past decade and into the future. Traditional models also tend to assume the ‘end of learning’ at some point in the near future, when in reality we are still seeing very rapid innovation in solar technology.”
“Using three models that track positive feedback, we project that solar PV will dominate the global energy mix by the middle of this century,” he explained.
However, researchers warn that solar-dominated electrical systems could be left behind. “trapped in configurations that are neither resilient nor sustainable, with a dependence on fossil fuels for distributable energy.
Instead of trying to achieve the solar transition alone, governments should focus their policies on overcoming four key “barriers”:
– Network resilience: Solar generation is variable (day/night, season, weather), so networks must be designed for this. Nijsse said: “If you don’t put processes in place to address that variability, you could end up having to compensate by burning fossil fuels.” He said methods to build resilience include investing in other renewables such as wind, transmission cables linking different regions, ample electricity storage and policies to manage demand (such as incentives to charge electric cars during off-peak hours). Government subsidies and R&D funding are important in the early stages of building a resilient networkhe added.
– Access to financing: Solar growth will inevitably depend on the availability of financing. Currently, low-carbon finance is highly concentrated in high-income countries. Even international financing heavily favors middle-income countries, leaving lower-income countries (particularly those in Africa) deficient in solar financing despite huge investment potential.
– Supply chains: A future dominated by solar energy is likely to be metals and minerals intensive. Future demand for “critical minerals” will increase. Electrification and batteries require large-scale raw materials such as lithium and copper. As countries accelerate their decarbonization efforts, renewable technologies are expected to account for 40% of total mineral demand for copper and rare earths, 60-70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% lithium by 2040.
– Political opposition: The resilience of declining industries may affect the transition. The pace of the transition depends not only on the economic decisions of businesspeople, but also on how desirable policymakers consider it. A rapid solar transition can put the livelihoods of up to 13 million people around the world working in fossil fuel and dependent industries at risk. Regional economic and industrial development policies They can resolve inequity and mitigate the risks posed by the resilience of declining industries.
Commenting on the financial barrier, Dr Nadia Ameli from the UCL Sustainable Resources Institute said: “There is a growing belief that, with the dramatic decline in the global average cost of renewables, it will be much easier for the developing world to decarbonize.”
“Our study reveals persistent obstacles, especially considering the challenges these nations face in accessing capital on equitable terms. Adequate financing remains imperative to accelerate the global decarbonization agenda“he assured.
#world #crossed #tipping #point #solar #energy