2024-12-18 06:07:00
China remains by far the largest consumer. The IEA estimates that 4.9 billion tons of coal will be burned this year, most of which will be used to generate electricity. According to their data, Chinese consumption is increasing in step with global consumption. India has above average growth of 5%. The IEA expects an increase to 1.3 billion tonnes of coal there. This amount exceeds consumption in Europe (0.5 billion tons) and North America (0.4 billion tons), which is expected to continue to decline by 8 and 5 percent, almost one and a half times.
In contrast to last year’s optimism, the IEA now expects no further decline in global coal consumption until further notice. However, growth rates are likely to weaken. As a result, only a slight increase of 0.4% to 8.9 billion tonnes is expected in the medium term to 2027. China would then have 5 billion tonnes (plus 0.4%), India would have 2.4 billion tonnes (plus 2.6%) and the ASEAN South-East Asian countries would replace Europe as the third largest production region. consumption.
“Global coal demand will reach a plateau by 2027,” summarizes the IEA in its new forecast. Renewable energy sources play a growing role in electricity production, especially in the Far East. “China continued to diversify its energy sector in 2024, spurring the construction of nuclear power plants and accelerating its massive expansion of solar and wind energy capacity,” the IEA writes. The rapidly growing electricity consumption of industry, transport, heating systems and data centers is increasingly covered by energy sources other than coal, which is particularly harmful to the climate.
China’s hydropower is also seeing a recovery after several years of “underperformance”, the IEA continues. However, in view of the expected formation of a plateau, some uncertainties are highlighted. China’s coal consumption could be up to 140 million tonnes higher or lower than forecast by 2027 due to weather fluctuations in renewable energy production. The three largest coal producers, China, India and Indonesia, will also set records this year, according to the IEA report. The Middle Kingdom currently accounts for around half of the amount financed.
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