2023-12-06 07:54:53
The year 2023 is not yet over but, according to the European Copernicus service, it will be the hottest in history after unprecedented heat in the month of November, which became the sixth month in a row to break temperature records.
With an average of 14.22°C on the surface of the globe, the past month exceeds the previous record of November 2020 by 0.32°C. The month of November 2023 is also 1.75°C warmer than the average November for the period 1850-1900, which corresponds to the pre-industrial era. The boreal autumn (in the northern hemisphere) is thus the hottest in history “with a wide margin”since it is 0.88°C above average, according to Copernicus.
“2023 now has six months and two record-breaking seasons. This extraordinary November, including two days with temperatures 2 degrees higher than in the pre-industrial era, means that 2023 is the hottest year ever recorded in history.said, Wednesday, December 5, Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the climate change department (C3S) at Copernicus, in a press release.
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Since January, the average temperature has been the hottest ever measured over the first eleven months of the year: 1.46°C above the climate average for the period 1850-1900, and 0.13°C above over the first eleven months of 2016, the hottest year yet.
Fossil fuels at the heart of COP28 negotiations
This shows how uncomfortably close the world is to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures for a single year. This threshold is central to the 2015 Paris climate agreement, even if exceeding this limit will require warming at this level over several decades.
“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, we should not expect results different from those observed this year. The temperature will continue to rise, as will the effects of heat waves and droughts”underlined Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S, quoted in the press release. “Reaching net zero [en termes d’émissions] as early as possible is an effective way to manage climate-related risks”he added, in a barely veiled allusion to the climate negotiations underway at COP28.
Tuesday evening, negotiators from nearly 200 countries debated step by step the Gordian knot of the draft final agreement: the fate of oil, gas and coal, the main causes of global warming. Several options are on the table, including the objective of a “orderly and fair exit from fossil fuels”. The appearance of this formulation foreshadows a possible consensus which would set a universal objective while allowing a different timetable for countries depending on their degree of development or dependence on hydrocarbons.
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No short-term goals
But this option is weighed against a more radical possibility: deciding nothing on fossil fuels, a reflection of the opposition at this stage from Saudi Arabia and China, according to several observers who attend the closed-door meetings.
As it stands, the text does not propose a short-term objective for the three fossil fuels while climate experts estimate that emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to hope to maintain the limit of 1.5°C.
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Only one “rapid exit of electricity from coal without carbon capture and an immediate shutdown” of the construction of new power plants is mentioned in the text, citing the need to reduce the use of coal by 75% by 2030 compared to 2019 according to UN climate experts (IPCC). But here again, the other option is to delete the entire paragraph, very embarrassing for major coal consumers like China, South Africa or Vietnam.
A new version of the text is expected Wednesday morning, which must then be brought to a large plenary meeting taking stock of the first week of work between country experts. Before a day of rest on Thursday and the arrival this weekend of ministers, supposed to regain control at the political level for the home stretch.
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