2024-04-05 04:34:46
In eight constituencies in the North Chungcheong region, each candidate is engaging in a close race, with the ruling and opposition parties competing even in safe areas.
On the 1st and 2nd, the KBS Cheongju Broadcasting Bureau announced a public opinion poll that investigated the level of support and likelihood of winning in a virtual match between candidates in constituencies in the province.
According to the Public Official Election Act, an opinion poll will be conducted from the 4th to the closing time on election day, and the results cannot be announced, cited or reported. In fact, it is expected that not only the political world but also voters will gauge the atmosphere of the North Chungcheong election based on the results of this opinion poll.
In the 21st general election, the results of a public opinion poll commissioned by KBS Cheongju Broadcasting showed that the likelihood of winning was similar to the voting results rather than the level of support among the candidates.
At the time, in some constituencies, the approval ratings between the ruling and opposition parties were very close at 0.1 percentage points, but the probability of winning was predictable, which was consistent with winning.
In a public opinion poll commissioned by KBS Cheongju Broadcasting Co., Ltd. from March 26th to 30th (the survey method was a telephone interview. Refer to the opinion poll overview), the approval ratings for the Democratic Party and People Power Party candidates in eight constituencies in the province were within the margin of error. It is a close battle or a very close battle.
However, when asked about electability, which was similar to past voting results, the Democratic Party was ahead in 5 places and the People Power Party was ahead in 3 places.
In Boeun, Okcheon, Yeongdong, and Goesan, which the People Power Party expects to be stable areas, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-han has an approval rating of 40%, while People Power Party candidate Park Deok-heum has an approval rating of 41%, making it a close race of 1 percentage point. However, the probability of election is reversed, with candidate Lee Jae-han at 23% and candidate Park Deok-heum at 56%.
In Chungju, Jecheon, and Danyang, the approval ratings for candidates between the two parties were within the margin of error, but the People Power Party candidate was ahead in terms of likelihood of being elected.
Considering the possibility of winning between the ruling and opposition parties, it is similar to the expectation of 5 seats in the province predicted by the North Chungcheong Province election committee of the Democratic Party.
However, the atmosphere in Seowon-gu, Cheongju is difficult to predict. The approval ratings for the candidates are within the margin of error, with 37% for Democratic Party candidate Lee Kwang-hee and 33% for People Power Party candidate Kim Jin-mo. The likelihood of being elected is also within the margin of error, with candidate Lee at 39% and candidate Kim at 36%.
The likelihood of winning in Cheongwon-gu is also within the margin of error, with 41% for Democratic Party candidate Song Jae-bong and 33% for People Power Party candidate Kim Soo-min.
Among the constituencies in the province, Seowon-gu and Cheongwon-gu are classified as places where it is difficult to relax until the last minute because the possibility of winning is within the margin of error.
Looking at the results of a public opinion poll examining the possibility of winning, an unpredictable atmosphere can be sensed in the eight constituencies of North Chungcheong Province, with the balance between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party changing to 5 to 3, 4 to 4, or 3 to 5.
However, there are variables that may cause the election probability poll to turn out differently than expected. When asked about support between candidates, he said, ‘I haven’t decided on a candidate to support. The floating group of ‘none, don’t know, or no response’ is Cheongju Sangdang 23%, Seowon 30%, Heungdeok 31%, Cheongwon 30%, Chungju 26%, Jecheon·Danyang 23%, Jeungpyeong·Jincheon·Eumseong 25%, Boeun·Okcheon·Yeongdong· It reaches 19% in Goesan.
It is assessed that success or failure can vary greatly depending on how much of this floating group is absorbed through the ‘judgment of the government’ and ‘checking the opposition party’s legislative domination’ promoted by the ruling and opposition parties.
An official in the provincial political world said, “As each political party says, ‘you have to open the lid to find out,’ and the biggest variables in public opinion polls are the atmosphere at the time and the movement of the floating class.” “It will be divided,” he said.
In this opinion poll, the approval rating and likelihood of election between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party candidates were as follows: △Substantial approval rating for Candidate Lee Kang-il, 42% – Candidate Seo Seung-woo, 34%; △Support for Candidate Lee, 48% – Candidate Seo 30%; △Support for Seowon, Candidate Kwang-hee Lee, 37% – Candidate Jin-mo Kim, 33% %, election potential: 39% for candidate Lee – 36% for candidate Kim △ Heungdeok approval rating: 39% for candidate Lee Yeon-hee – 29% for candidate Dong-won Kim, 43% chance for election – candidate Kim: 27% △ approval rating for petitions: 37% for candidate Song Jae-bong – 32% for candidate Kim Soo-min , election probability: Candidate Song 41% – Candidate Kim 33% △ Chungju approval rating: Candidate Kim Kyung-wook 35% – Candidate Lee Jong-bae 39%, election probability Candidate Kim 26% – Candidate Lee 52% △ Jecheon/Danyang approval rating Candidate Lee Gyeong-yong 31% – Candidate Eom Tae-young 36% , Candidate Lee’s election potential 26% – Candidate Eom 51% △ Approval rating for Central District 3: Candidate Lim Ho-seon: 43% – Candidate Kyung Dae-soo’s 33%, Candidate Lim’s electability: 49% – Candidate Kyung’s 25% △ Candidate Lee Jae-han’s approval rating for Southeastern District 4: 40% – Park Deok-heum Candidate 41%, candidate Lee 23%, candidate Park 56%.
(For detailed information on the public opinion poll, refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website)
Reporter Kim Jeong-hyeon Photo News 1
.
2024-04-05 04:34:46