2024-04-19 23:17:30
Citing official US officials, American channels ABC and CBS News reported early Friday morning that Israel had struck Iran in retaliation for a missile and drone attack over the weekend.
“Probably no one was surprised that Israel reacted,” he told the portal lrytas.lt V. Malinionis commented on the initial data about the latest attack. “That’s how many experts assumed that he would respond to that sufficiently strong strike by Iran, and Iran, as you know, reacted because Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria.”
According to American media, Israel wanted to show Tehran that it can attack inside the country with the alleged airstrike in Iran.
The ball is in Iran’s hands
How things will develop further will depend on Iran, but the expert does not rule out that the conflict in the Middle East could escalate dangerously.
“Now it is possible that Iran will respond again. Although the Israeli response does not appear to have been very large. As far as primary information is known, no nuclear infrastructure was attacked, but still Israel responded and now the ball is in Iran’s hands.
Iran is likely to respond as well. We are at such a dangerous crossroads where a major conflict could erupt. This is such a bad option. There are probably not many good options, I don’t think that Iran will hold back, it will also have to answer”, predicts V. Malinionis.
So far, there is little public information about the damage caused by the Israeli strike on Iran. Iran’s Fars news agency reported three explosions near a military base in Isfahan province. State news agency IRNA claimed there was “no major damage”. However, according to V. Malinionios, the West may already take steps aimed at mitigating possible further escalation.
“We only know that the drones were shot down, whether there were missiles, how many of them, it’s hard to say now, here is preliminary information for now. Israel keeps a low profile, does not comment in any way, but we all understand that Israel has a hand in this and he does not deny it.
Now, apparently, there will be some kind of escalation. We’ll see if it will be possible to resolve the conflict through some diplomatic channels, maybe the US will strengthen its presence in the Mediterranean Sea, there is now a group of aircraft carriers there, maybe some measures will be taken that might deter Iran from further escalation,” thought V. Malinionis.
Political considerations
The expert pointed out that Israel’s response was inevitable for another reason – the political future of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu depends on it.
“It was to be expected that now Israel will respond, they cannot not respond. One of the reasons for this is B.Netanyahu, whose political survival also depends on those so-called members of hard politics, whose will allows B.Netanyahu to remain in power.
So B. Netanyahu could not not respond to Iran, not only because it was absolutely necessary to respond, but because he would remain in power. So there are more ingredients of all kinds.
However, all military logic dictates that you cannot not punish (for an attack on your country). While that punishment appears to be minimal or even more symbolic for now, it is still an attack and it remains to be seen how Iran will react and what happens next. The situation is hot and nothing good can be predicted for now”, explained V. Malinionis.
A threat to Ukraine and Europe
According to V. Malinionis, if Iran and Israel continue to exchange blows and the conflict in the Middle East expands significantly, it will be tragic news not only for Ukraine, but also for the whole of Europe.
“If this conflict flares up in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, of course our main NATO allies – the United States of America and Great Britain, and probably other countries too – will have to intervene, which is obviously bad news for Ukraine and for us, because the focus on Ukraine is even more would decrease.
The US itself declares that it cannot fight two wars at the same time, such is its concept and such capabilities. They can fight one war well, and not so well in others, they declare.
In a certain sense, our security situation would also worsen if a conflict broke out. We are not really interested in that, but Russia is certainly interested, precisely for the same reasons – its hands are untied, there are new opportunities to carry out its aggression here, with us, in Europe”, warned the expert.
The West does not wake up at all
Evaluating the first reports that appeared in the US media about Israel’s strike on Iran, V. Malinionis did not spare criticism of the West on his Facebook account. “Evening – business as usual,” he wrote early in the morning.
Portal lrytas.lt When asked what he meant by this expression, the reserve colonel explained:
“In the sense that talk is talk, but for more than two years there has been a full-scale war in Europe, a full-fledged invasion, and the defense industry has not yet been started, the processes are going too slowly, the United States and the West do not have a clear vision of what needs to be achieved to end this war .
And the visions are such that at first “we will support as much as necessary” to “we will support as much as we can”. Basically, this is not a vision, because the vision must be very clear – Ukraine must take back its territories, and Russia must be drained to the point where it cannot pose a threat to other states in the future.
But this vision is not there and I called it business as usual, because if Great Britain, Germany had started their defense industry two years ago, when the war started, we could already supply sufficient numbers of weapons and artillery shells to Ukraine, but we still do not understand the threats. I am not talking about Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland, here the understanding is different, and the processes could be faster, but I am talking about countries like Germany, where 50% societies believe that there is no need to support Ukraine or that Ukraine is supported too much.”
V. Malinionis added that the Western states’ indecision and insufficiently serious approach to security posed an existential danger to the entire NATO alliance. He, like a number of other experts, believes that a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean an inevitable Russian war with NATO.
“Such lethargic sleep and ignoring the danger is dangerous for the entire Western civilization, because I would agree with the opinion of some experts that if Ukraine loses the war, basically, an existential threat immediately arises for NATO as well. Not only for Lithuania, but for the entire NATO alliance,” the reserve colonel warned.
2024-04-19 23:17:30