Long-term demographic trends are narrowing the quantitative supply of labor, while the polarization of societal skills, regional disproportions and skills obsolescence are exacerbating the risks of structural mismatches and labor shortages. This is one of the conclusions included in the information report of the Ministry of Economy (ME). About mid- and long-term forecasts of the labor market until 2040.
The report shows trends that are not particularly new or surprising, but at the same time, such a document makes it possible to predict the possible actions of the government to improve the labor market situation. It should be noted that last weekend the party represented in the government presented its proposals for improving the labor market situation Progressives. On the other hand, the Ministry of Welfare, as is known, is responsible for the organization of individual employment events Green and peasant unions (ZZS) under supervision.
Productivity should be increased
In general, unemployment will continue to decrease both in the medium and long term, EM predicts. It is expected that the unemployment rate could drop below 6% as early as 2026. Both in the medium and long term, unemployment will be close to its natural level (within 5-6%). The highest unemployment risks are expected for residents with a low level of education and without professional skills or professional qualifications, as well as from the centers of economic activity in regions further away. At the same time, the stability of Latvia’s economy against external shocks has proven itself in previous years, confirming the limited direct impact of sanctions and the narrowing of the export market on the Latvian labor market.
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