In the first round of the French legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition and the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) federated around Jean-Luc Mélenchon finished neck and neck, winning 25.75% and 25% respectively. .66% of the vote. During the second round, organized on June 19, the French will have to choose between the left alliance and the presidential majority in many constituencies. However, the seat forecasts give a majority to the presidential coalition.
On the one hand, because the hexagonal electoral system requires only one vote better than its adversary to claim victory. On the other hand, because Ensemble has reserves on its right and can count on the 10.42% of the Republicans if the coalition mobilizes correctly against the left. Moreover, voters on the right and in the centre, generally older than those on the left, vote more than young people.
Disciplined and unifying nudes
The final results of the first round reflect the quality of the campaigns and show that politics is a fair genre. Macron and his electoral coalition wanted to buy time and sleep until the end, a tactic visibly less effective than before the presidential election. Also responsible for many errors, the majority reaps a weak result compared to its possibilities and its starting position. But if we look at the “success” of Ensemble, a hair ahead of Nupes, it comes more from the personality of the president than from the establishment of En Marche-Renaissance and the work of the party. over the past five years.
For its part, the left-wing coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is reaping the fruits of a disciplined and unifying campaign. The Republicans, on the other hand, are obtaining convincing results in