2023-10-25 12:49:39
New upheaval in the conflict which has destabilized Western Asia for three decades. Tuesday October 24, while for more than two weeks all eyes have been on the war between Israel and Hamas, the Armenian ambassador in Paris, Hasmik Tolmajian, sounded the alarm.
According to her, Armenia is under threat of an invasion by troops from Baku, which is carrying out military maneuvers with Turkey on its border, in the autonomous territory of Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave. Accusations denied by Baku, which promises that these exercises are without consequences.
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While the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh remains worrying, diplomatic tensions now extend to many actors and allies in the region, from Turkey to Russia, including France. “Geopolitical upheavals are propitious moments for authoritarian countries who want to take advantage of them,” warned Armenian Ambassador Hasmik Tolmajian to AFP on Tuesday, October 24, suggesting that Azerbaijan could take advantage of the fact that the community The international community should be focused on other fronts to advance pawns in Armenia.
Fracture point between Armenia and Russia
This conflict was rekindled a little over a month ago. On September 19, Azerbaijan, a country bordering Armenia, took control, after a lightning offensive, of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave located between the two countries and at the heart of a long-term separatist struggle. date. Before that, Azerbaijan and Armenia had already clashed in two wars for control of this mountainous enclave, one in the 1990s, at the dislocation of the USSR, the other, at fall 2020, won by Baku. More than 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, almost the entire population of the enclave, have since fled to Armenia.
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This latest attack once again destabilizes the region and blurs historical alliances. Because, to the great dismay of the Armenian government, Moscow, its most powerful ally, did not react to Baku’s military offensive. For the Russian giant, Yerevan has lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh since it recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over this region during negotiations and refused to come to the aid of the separatists.
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© / afp.com/Nalini LEPETIT-CHELLA, Sophie RAMIS, Laurence SAUBADU
Tension is therefore at its height between the two traditional partners: on Tuesday October 24, the Armenian government went so far as to summon the Russian ambassador to accuse Moscow of having made “insulting and totally unacceptable statements against senior Armenian officials”, in a television program on the Russian federal channel Pervy Kanal. The channel had broadcast a program the day before criticizing the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, for his management of the conflict with Azerbaijan and his desire to get closer to the West.
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Approach to the West for fear of invasion
Armenia now fears that its neighbor, richer, better armed and supported by Turkey, will be tempted to connect the exclave of Nakhchivan to the rest of its territory by force by attacking southern Armenian regions. A fear rejected by Leyla Abdullayeva, the Azerbaijani ambassador in Paris, who told AFP that “exercises at different levels [avaient] held regularly between the armies of Azerbaijan and Turkey.” “The joint tactical exercise ‘Mustafa Kemal Atatürk 2023’, dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, is taking place in accordance with the cooperation agreement in the military field concluded [entre les Etats]”, explained the diplomat.
In recent months, she told AFP that Azerbaijan had no interest in launching a war, because it had invested a lot economically. “War is not Azerbaijan’s choice. Our choice is peace. Our choice is diplomatic negotiations,” she also said in mid-September.
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Fearing for its security in the face of the inaction of its usual protector, Yerevan has recently sought to get closer to the West by organizing joint exercises with the United States and obtaining promises of arms delivery from France.
Armenia also ratified its membership in the International Criminal Court, a gesture perceived as hostile by Moscow, since the body issued an arrest warrant against President Vladimir Putin. A series of decisions which add fuel to the international geopolitical blaze, while Moscow has been denouncing European and American interventionism in the region for several days.
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