2023-08-31 16:55:00
In the aftermath of the coup in Gabon, just after the announcement of Ali Bongo’s re-election for a third term, many questions arise. Appointed president of the transition on Wednesday, the head of the Republican Guard, General Brice Oligui Nguema, a cousin of the Head of State, for example, did not specify the duration.
Thus, if power seems to have changed hands, it is less certain that the clan system set up in this small and rich country of Central Africa by Omar Bongo, and continued by his son Ali, will also change. What to expect from this announced transition, following the eighth successful coup in Africa in less than five years?
Point asked the question to Roland Marchal, researcher on the economy and conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa at Sciences Po Paris.
Point : The Bongo dynasty seems to have fallen, but can we expect a real change of system in the country, when the putschist is a cousin of Ali Bongo and close to the regime?
Roland Marchal : It is clear that it was people close to power who did the trick. If they sent a certain number of rather positive subliminal messages, showing a desire for liberalization, such as the restoration of the Internet and the broadcasting of foreign media, in particular French, American and German, I am not very optimistic. It is curious that no steps have been taken towards the opponents.
In his speech yesterday, which was, as in Niger, odds and ends, Brice Oligui Nguema did not mention a transition period; he did not claim to want to leave power after the organization of free elections monitored by the African Union and the international community; he did not announce the establishment of a commission to recover stolen property or claim that the money recovered would go to the public treasury…
They are not Sankarists
We have the impression of being faced with putschists who are making a coup, without having really thought about the consequences, nor about how their ambitions will fit into this new political cycle.
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This coup was anticipated, but it is carried out by officers who are not revolutionaries. They are not Sankarists, and they are probably as rotten as Ali Bongo. It is too early to say if the system will change, maybe they will develop a program, but a regime is not a man… The CEO (the Bongo party) is present everywhere in the administration, which is going to be a big problem. In addition, all the armed forces seem to be involved in the putsch. They must be negotiating, and it’s unlikely that all of the military leaders are staunch democrats, especially after so many years of authoritarianism.
Despite this, we see that the Gabonese are celebrating this coup d’etat: the population could not take it anymore.
What does this new coup say, again, barely a month after the putsch in Niger?
On the one hand, there is a huge international problem, which is not only French, but also concerns African regional organisations, the European Union, the United States… How have we accepted for so many years to see elections tampered with in such an inelegant way, without anyone ever denouncing it, with the exception of opponents, who were disqualified? The French government is a past master in the sublime art of swearing by democracy while at the same time making despicable little arrangements. This must challenge the French, and in particular the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Presidency and Defense. But the ECCAS (Economic Community of Central African States) and the African Union should also explain how so many observer delegations have decided to cover so many electoral manipulations until today. African organizations need to understand that they are not there to represent the elites.
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What consequences will this new coup d’etat have in the sub-region?
In my opinion, a number of Central African leaders must have slept poorly that night. Because we must bear in mind that, if what is happening in West Africa and the Sahel is not brilliant in democratic terms, in Central Africa, it is much worse. In Cameroon, Paul Biya has been in power since 1982; in Congo-Brazzaville, Denis Sassou Nguesso has been there since 1977; in the Central African Republic, Faustin-Archange Touadéra relies on Wagner to keep control; and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has ruled Equatorial Guinea since 1979…
The soldiers of the region rub their hands. We can expect a wave of promotions
These regimes are pathologies for Africa, which needs institutions, development, governance, and it is far from being on their agenda. I won’t talk about contagion, but the multiplication of coups d’état can only strengthen the ambitions of some and offer solutions – which may not be solutions – for the end of these dictatorships which do not want to let go of the power.
All these leaders of the last century must therefore be in their little shoes. The soldiers of the region rub their hands. We can expect a wave of promotions; many will be sent as defense attachés abroad, that’s how we get rid of essentials or promoted within particular staffs, to remain under surveillance, far from barracks. But the question will remain nagging: who will be next?
This loss of confidence in the armies can also precipitate certain countries into the arms of Wagner, to guarantee themselves a real praetorian guard. We have reached the quintessence of the illegitimacy of so-called democratically elected regimes.
Is there a strong democratic aspiration in Gabon?
Since the 1990s, there have been several waves of violence in the country (after the elections). People hoped for democratization, openness, sharing of resources that does not benefit the population of this very rich country. This demand for democracy is also extremely strong in Africa, but it is no longer expressed there in the words of Westerners. When Westerners speak of “elections”, Africans hear “rigging”. The proposed solutions have been spoiled for thirty years, with all these compromises that have been made on the quality of elections, on the confusion between elections and democracy, when they are not at all the same thing. Emmanuel Macron could have played a relevant role, he has the age and the generation to talk about these subjects with serenity, he is not linked to Françafrique, there are few financial interests… He could have stated certain things to consolidate confidence and reassure about France’s objectives, but his remarks on the contrary irritated African public opinion.
It is once again problematic that the French did not see it coming…
Can we expect the same scenario as in Niger? Is this an additional blow to France?
Basically, yes, it is, and not so much because relations between Ali Bongo and Emmanuel Macron were good, unlike those he had with Mohamed Bazoum. Above all, there is a French base in Gabon, which moreover played an extremely important role during the Cold War. The special forces it houses have played an eminent role in a whole series of operations in central and southern Africa. It is once again problematic that the French did not see it coming… They keep saying they are the best, and find themselves once again caught off guard. There is a problem with the army and French diplomacy. These two very strong institutions have a certain African culture that needs to be overhauled in order to sort out good and bad practices.
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But the soldiers who took power in Gabon are the main interlocutors of the French, and know what they owe them, because France is generous. There are therefore undoubtedly Praetorian solidarities. On the other side, there are popular dynamics, a rejection of the African policy of France and Emmanuel Macron, which also exists in Gabon. The question is to what extent the junta has its own political project, and to what extent it will content itself with overlapping popular dynamics.
But in my opinion, and unlike Niger, the military will remain relatively cautious. In Gabon, there is very little chance that a military intervention will be mentioned. ECCAS has even less means to intervene than ECOWAS and is not going to mention this kind of possibility, which can help to pacify things. France can also be more serene and more silent in the management of this coup, because the closeness of the relations, like the stakes, are not the same. France is also very present in East Africa, for example, where it does not deploy stupid political discourse, and things are going better.
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