2023-08-08 02:17:13
CORDOBA.- The housing deficit affects 20.9% of formal workers in the private sectoraround 1.6 million middle class households if the stratification is done by social sector. Faced with this panorama, from the Institute of Political Economy of the Siglo 21 University, directed by Gaston Utrera, has been talking with businessmen and trade unionists a proposal for finance salary-indexed mortgage loans, which has as its axis the creation of Layoff Funds (FCL). In a decadesays the proposal could be reduced or resolved the lack of housing for this social segment.
It is obvious that the main problem to reduce the housing deficit -understood, beyond the question of property, as the number of households that reside in precarious housing, in a situation of cohabitation or overcrowding- is the shortage of mortgage credita practically insoluble problem in contexts of high inflation and high volatility of relative prices.
in dialogue with THE NATIONUtrera emphasizes that the initiative to create FCL is at the level of each Collective Labor Agreement and not tied to a reform of the labor contract law. The main function of the fund is to cover the payment of compensation established by law and must be financed with the contribution of active companies, in fixed percentage of his salary mass.
How FCLs should preserve the value of your resources in salary terms They are applicants for financial instruments that have the same indexation. “This would allow the development of a market for wage-indexed mortgage bonds issued by commercial banks for fund salary-indexed mortgage loans for workers in each sector”, describes the economist.
A working document accessed by this outlet indicates that A volume of resources estimated between 40% and 100% of what is necessary to eliminate, in 10 years, the housing deficit of middle-class homes could be accumulated.
To solve the problem through mortgage credit, it would be necessary to accumulate US$115,000 million, around 18% of GDPCourtesy CAF
The report divides the housing deficit into different segments; the first is that of poor households (1.2 million) those who directly do not have the resources to solve the problem on their own and need specific public policies. At the other end are high-income households (467,000) They can move on your side. In the middle are the 1.6 million middle-class homes with a housing deficit.
With a projection of official data, Utrera estimates that in the next 10 years the construction of 46,400 million square meters (75 m² homes) to eliminate the housing deficit of middle-class homes.
To solve the problem through the mortgage loan, it would be necessary to accumulate US$115 billion, about 18% of GDP. Last year, the average mortgage loan stock was 0.4% of GDP.
In inflationary economies, such as Argentina in recent years, determining a convenient indexation scheme is complex. For example, do it for consumer price indices (the case of UVA) or by construction cost indices (the case of the UVI), generates financial problems for borrowers if their income is updated at the rate of evolution of wages, and these are delayed. That was the cause of the brake on the granting of UVAs.
“One solution, naturally, would be the indexing by salary indexeswhich would avoid the mismatch between the fees and the income of the borrowers, but it happens that there is not enough supply of funding indexed by salaries, for this reason the alternative of the FLC is interesting ”, contributes the economist.
The proposed scheme requires the creation of a body to administer FCL resourcessince, by not providing -at least initially- equal compensation regardless of the cause of dismissal, it is not possible to use individual bank accounts, as occurs in the regime of the construction union, the Uocra.
The entities that sign the collective labor agreement that act as a legal entity in the terms provided for by the Civil Code would participate in the body, would receive the contributions of the companies, would make the payments on behalf of and by order of each company of the indemnities and would administer the resources of the FCL.
The document indicates that, in an FCL scheme that covers all sectors of private activity, mortgage bonds could be generated in a decade for the equivalent of 12.3% of GDP (68.3% of the resources needed to solve the housing deficit of the middle class).
How is the calculation done? Take the 6,522,513 average formal workers of 2022 according to data from the Ministry of Labor; It assumes a constant purchasing power of salaries ($174,275 average 2022), a turnover rate of 5% per year and a dismissal rate of 25% of that turnover. The contribution rate to FCL is projected at 8% and one 90% affectation of the net funds from the payment of indemnities to the investment in mortgage bonds.
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