2024-08-06 12:42:32
It is a very common practice among the world’s big companies to spread lies about each other and thus lead to stock fluctuations. We also constantly face the influence of hostile countries.
Chief economist of Šiaulių bankas Indrė Genytė-Pikčienė and Vilnius University economist dr. Algirdas Bartkus.
You can make mistakes without thinking
According to I. Genytė-Pikčienė, economics is such a science about expectations, about future behavior and decisions to save, invest, buy or sell. And influencing expectations can be attractive enough for economic and political opinion makers and politicians.
However, this process should be linked to the maturity of society and politicians. “The situation has changed over the past few decades, as the population has become more critical, much more attentive to mistakes, and they themselves evaluate much more carefully what is said from public platforms,” the economist assured.
Speaking about disinformation and hostile forces, A. Bartkus pointed out that this is deliberate misleading, spreading incorrect information, when it is known what the intended effect is.
Although this is not a common phenomenon in economics, according to him, it can be attributed to wrong forecasts, wrong guesses or misinterpreted data.
One example is from the year 2022, when inflation grew due to published information, and panic arose. It very much depends on who is reporting the misinformation. Last year, the State Energy Regulatory Council announced that electricity would cost 63.5 cents per kilowatt hour. If such a prediction had been made by an authoritative economist, nothing would have happened, because the public would have treated it as a guess.
However, when such figures are provided by a public institution, such a forecast can already affect the price of electricity, which will rise to the heights. Businesses then resort to raising prices and buying cheaper energy resources in order to generate the funds necessary to cover the growing bills.
The decision to provide a price forecast, as A. Bartkus says, was a mistake. It wouldn’t be a mistake to forecast prices a day or two ahead. In this case, it’s not misinformation, it’s misconstrued information that led to further action.
How to control panic? According to I. Genytė-Pikčienė, first of all, it should not be condemned. “We should remember the situation in 2022, those were very atypical times. Indeed, at that time the amplitude of scenarios was significantly expanded: we had an inflationary shock, we had a war on the side with many scenarios and non-economic stimuli, which forced both economists and public institutions to think about what risks the economy might have to counter.
Part of the rhetoric was apparently related to the desire to inform economic participants so that they would be ready, that they would have considered the options,” she said.
One phrase or prediction is not enough
Is it enough for public figures to have a cool head when it comes to managing the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine or the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on society?
I. Genytė-Pikčienė believes that it is difficult to generalize, but the situation was complicated due to the instability due to the elections and the war. It was human to hope that the speeches would not be just cold rhetoric, there was no shortage of emotions.
Be that as it may, Lithuanian consumer surveys are encouraging, which show that the population is quite optimistic, even in the context of the European Union, resistant to crises, trials or economic crises. “This shows that we were doing something right in preparing for the difficult period,” she assessed the situation, adding that the global financial crisis may have played a role.
One wrong phrase or expert forecast will not necessarily mean financial losses, losses for businesses, says A. Bartkus. If the forecast is shared by an institution that is responsible for part of the pricing processes, there can be an effect. However, when a famous person – an economist or a politician – expresses their assessment, the markets may not react and wait for more information from other sources.
He also remembers another example from 2022. Russia has created an ad that suggests that the gas tap will turn off and Europe will freeze.
“At that time, I remember, in September, it was reported in the Lithuanian press on all portals that the gas storage in Latvia was half empty, although it was 50% full. Here was an example where people, looking only at 50% filling did not understand one thing, that Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were the best prepared to withstand the winter of all European countries.
I was the only one who explained the opposite – there is absolutely no reason to panic here, because the gas storage holds 24 terawatt hours of gas, and the annual needs of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are 40 terawatt hours of gas,” the interviewer said. At that time, Poles had 18 percent. of the annual gas demand, and in German gas storage facilities – 80 percent. filling with gas.
This shows that all data and statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.
To what extent is the domestic market of Lithuania affected by targeted disinformation and lies spread by Russia and Belarus? In I. Genytė-Pikčienė’s understanding, not only the narrative that Lithuanians are living worse and worse, but also the fact that we have our own liquefied gas terminal and that we are one of the best prepared for the tests and cut ties with Russia in time, was prominent.
“I think this narrative overshadows all the other unpopular narratives that would really destabilize the trust and peace of the population. It was not a question of energy security. – assures the economist. – It’s the prices that are worrying.
2024-08-06 12:42:32