2023-09-29 11:49:44
Extreme heat – PXHERE.COM
MADRID, 29 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The strong El Niño episode in progress will wreak havoc on global surface temperatures and will trigger several climate crises in 2023-2024.
This is the gloomy prognosis of researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who have published a study on this topic in The Innovation Geoscience.
In his opinion, the El Niño phenomenon, known for releasing massive heat into the atmosphere, is about to change atmospheric circulation patterns, influence tropical-extratropical interactions and impact subtropical jets, monsoons and even polar vortexes. , and finally results in a rapid increase in the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST).
GMST, which integrates global land surface temperature and sea surface temperature, is one of the vital indicators of climate variability and global warming. Its interannual variability is mainly dominated by ENSO phenomena, with El Niño phenomena being particularly influential due to their capacity to release immense heat into the atmosphere. which causes anomalies in atmospheric circulation and changes in the energy balance of the surface.
In early 2023, the ensemble prediction system developed by IAP predicted that There will be an El Niño event in the fall and it could continue throughout the winter.
Drawing on historical climate data and previous studies, the IAP team revealed the extent and potential consequences of extreme warming expected in 2023-2024. Their findings indicate a 17% chance that the 2023 GMST will become the highest on record since 1950, and a staggering 61% chance that it will crack the top three. In 2024, these probabilities will suddenly increase to 56% and 79%, respectively.
During the development of a strong El Niño in 2023, warm anomalies are expected to predominantly affect the tropical central-eastern Pacific, the Eurasian continent, and Alaska. However, In the following year, 2024, warm anomalies are likely to span entire continentssignificantly increasing the possibility of terrestrial heat waves, droughts and forest fires.
CASCADE OF CLIMATE CRISIS
According to Professor Zheng Fei, corresponding author of the study, “In addition to the increase in surface temperatures, Strong El Niño in 2023-2024 is expected to trigger a cascade of climate crises“. These include intensification of marine heat waves, deoxygenation of the oceans, reduced ocean diversity, damage to marine ecosystems, rising sea levels and reduced crop yields.
Specifically, China may face multiple climate anomalies during this period. For example, the suppression of the winter monsoon in 2023 may lead to high winter temperatures in most regions of China and could also increase the likelihood of air pollution. In 2024, northern China may experience drought in spring, while southern regions will likely have to face the risk of extreme rainfall and flooding during summer.
#warn #cascade #climate #crises #due #Niño