this is how the effectiveness of the Covid vaccine drops after 6 months – time.news

from Simona Ravizza and Fiorenza Sarzanini

The third dose of Covid vaccine is necessary because, after 6 months, the protection against the disease remains high, but drops significantly in all age groups. The data in the new report of the Higher Institute of Health

The third dose of Covid vaccine

necessary perch after 6 months from the completion of the vaccination cycle, a sharp decrease in vaccination efficacy is observed in preventing diagnoses at all age groups. the conclusion contained in the bulletin ofHigher Institute of Health that for the first time shows how protection changes

offered by vaccines based on their date of administration.

The difference between those who have had the vaccine for more than six months and those who have done it for less than six months.

The calculation (which a study published in Science made vaccine by vaccine, with exact data on Pfizer, Moderna and J&J) performed on how many became infected, were hospitalized and ended up in intensive care in the last 30 days (therefore with the Delta variant).

To understand how much the vaccine protects for the two respective classes, we look at the incidence, i.e. make a comparison on 100,000 inhabitants, based on age groups.

ISS analysts write: In general, on the whole population, vaccination efficacy goes from 76% in vaccinated with a full course within six months compared to unvaccinated, al 50% in vaccinated with a full course over six months compared to non-vaccinated. In the case of severe illness, the difference between vaccinated with a full course for over and less than six months is smaller. In fact, a decrease in vaccination efficacy of about 10 percentage points is observed, since the efficacy for vaccinated with a complete cycle for less than six months is equal to 92% compared to unvaccinated, while it is equal to 82% for those who have been vaccinated with a full course for over six months compared to those who have not been vaccinated.

THE INFECTED
According to the bulletin 10.5% of the cases reported in the last two weeks of male sex and aged between 10 and 29 years, equal to the percentage of female subjects in the same age group. In total, in the period 25 October – 7 November 2021, 52.5% of reported Covid-19 cases were diagnosed in females. The percentage of Covid-19 cases detected in people over the age of 60 stable (23.4% vs 23.2% compared to the previous week). The median age of cases slightly increased (43 years, range: 0-108 years).

YOUNG PEOPLE
Experts highlight that in the age group between 12 and 39 years, the infected with two doses taken for less than six months are 98 against the 247 who have done it for over 6 months, the hospitalized 0.7 against 3, but none in any case ended up in resuscitation. From the very young it emerges, therefore, how the effectiveness of the vaccine decreases over time.

THE VACCINAL EFFECTIVENESS

The Higher Institute of Health estimates that the effectiveness drops from 80 to 59% for infections and from 95 to 82% against severe disease.

But beware: i 12-39enni unvaccinated people who have become infected are as many as 508 per 100,000 inhabitants, that is more than double the number of those who were immunized more than six months ago, and five times that of those vaccinated for less than six months. And to demonstrate the effectiveness of the vaccine are hospitalizations: 12 for those without immunization (respectively 18 times more than those vaccinated for less than six months, and 4 times for over 6 months).

The same goes for the other age groups. THE 40-59 eat Infected among those who have had the vaccine for less than six months are 127 per 100 thousand inhabitants against 263 protected for over six months, the hospitalized 1.5 against 5. Still no difference for those in intensive care, 1 in a million in both the cases. According to ISS estimates, the effectiveness of the vaccine therefore goes from 72 to 42% for infections, and from 95 to 87.5% for severe disease. The difference in proportion with respect to the unvaccinated remains similar to that already seen: the infected without immunization are 484 out of 100 thousand inhabitants and 30.5 hospitalized, those in intensive care 3.

In the range between 60 and 79 years These are the results: 111 infected people vaccinated for less than six months against 242 for less than six months (407 non-immunized), hospitalized 7 against 14 (as many as 72 without vaccine), intensive care 0.8 against 1.6 (otherwise 15). Estimation of the ISS on vaccination efficacy: from 72% to 40%, depending on whether the two doses have been taken for more or less than six months for diagnosis, from 92 to 78% for severe disease.

Per gli over 80: 113 out of 100 thousand inhabitants infected with the two doses performed for less than six months against 154 who did it for more than six months (526 unvaccinated), hospitalized 25 against 31 (otherwise 184). Little changes for resuscitation for those who in any case received the vaccine: 1.5 against 1.4. But the number rises once again enormously for those who have not taken the two doses: the elderly who have ended up in intensive care are 10, or more than 6 times as many. For the over 80s, the drop in vaccination protection estimated by the ISS from 80 to 61% against infections, and from 89 to 80% against severe disease. Deaths: between the ages of 60-79, 10 per 100,000 inhabitants for no vax, 2 for those who took the two doses for more than six months, and 0.7 for those for less than six months. Among the over 80s, respectively 64, 10 and 6.

WANING
The end result is that the effectiveness of the vaccine
before and after six months from the date of administration, in general on the population, for infections it drops by 25.5 points, going from 75.5 to 50.2. While for severe disease leading to hospitalization or intensive care it is reduced by only 9.7 points (from 91.8 to 82.1), and the protection remains very high in any case. As of 7 November, 39 million vaccinated with two doses for less than six months, 3.8 million vaccinated with a full cycle for less than six months and unfortunately still 8.3 million unvaccinated. The message from the Higher Institute of Health accompanying these data that the third dose must be taken, especially for the categories for which it is recommended now, because the waning (the decline), that is the loss of efficacy, can already be seen while those who are vaccinated in a decisive way are protected compared to those who are not immunized.

November 13, 2021 (change November 13, 2021 | 14:57)

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