‘This is how the virus will move’ The algorithm predicts infections

For eight Italian regions, the month of April could prove to be disastrous as regards infections. According to a algorithm prepared by Istat statistician Livio Fenga, a net increase in Coronavirus positives is expected in various areas of Italy. News that worries the institutions and citizens, already under pressure for the continuation of the difficult vaccination campaign. It is the same Fenga, in an interview with the newspaper The messenger, to explain how his algorithm works. “It deals with – says the statistician – of a model based on the combination of forecasts and from which an increase in positive cases emerges in regions that we could consider as special supervised “. But what could happen in a month if the predictions come true and which are the territories affected by the increase in cases of Covid-19?

Among the regions most at risk is the Campania which should go from the positive 98,073 recorded up to March 16, to the approximately 127,317 expected for mid-April. A worrying leap forward for one of the areas with the highest population density and under the eye of the hurricane due to the continuing controversy over health shortages. The other seven regions that could undergo an exponential growth of the infected are: Calabria, Puglia, Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy and Piedmont. “Although – explains Fenga – the model is not designed to capture the variants, but to make predictions, the feeling is that the variants themselves are playing a significant role as it is not uncommon to detect, by observing the dynamic structure of the equations, phenomena attributable to sudden increases in the number of positives “.

After Campania, the other three regions for which the greatest increase in Coronavirus cases is expected are: Emilia Romagna (from 68,192 to 116,185 newly infected), Lombardy (from 95,776 to 147,552) and Puglia (from 39,214 to 50,039). Still, as for the Region governed by Attilo Fontana, local surveys speak instead of a growth curve of the epidemic that is slowing down massively. This means that it is approaching the peak, which should arrive within four to five days, and then begin to decline. This trend is also greeted positively by Fontana himself, who declared with optimism to Corriere della Sera: “I see some slight improvement”. The trend, from the news on the development of infections, has stopped running and is experiencing a sort of plateau, which translated into less epidemiological terms is the antechamber of the descent.

The algorithm, however, on the contrary, anticipates that Sicily, Umbria and Sardinia should significantly improve their situation. In particular, the last two regions would see the cases of Covid-19 drop, by mid-April, from 5,905 to 3,937, probably thanks to the containment measures more rigid adopted in recent times. Even in Lazio, the first positive signs have already been noticed, which could lead the region to leave the red zone within two weeks. “Who – conclude Fenga – we should go from 54,371 cases detected as of March 16 to 44,294 expected by mid-April “.

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