2023-07-07 21:32:28
The cold shower follows the warm rain. The Dax only reached a record high of 16,427 points in mid-June. The US technology stock index Nasdaq 100 rose almost 39 percent between January and June – the highest first half increase in its 38-year history. So there was quite a bit to earn in the stock market this year. For three weeks now it has been the turn of investors who are betting on falling prices. This week, the Dax fell below 16,000 points for the first time since May and only stopped at 15,450 points.
If the impression is not deceptive, the wheat is just separated from the chaff on the stock market. If companies fall significantly short of their business forecasts for the first half of 2023, they have to warn investors a few weeks before the planned quarterly report. It started with the Leverkusen-based specialty chemicals group Lanxess, this week the competitor Clariant from Switzerland and the oil companies Exxon and Shell were added with “profit warnings”. In a week, the regular reporting season will begin in the USA with the major banks JPMorgan and Citigroup.
Südzucker has already presented quarterly figures on the German stock market this week and has set itself higher targets for the year. Investors were pleased. On the other hand, the Linux software specialist Suse warned of worsening business, and the share slipped to a record low. In addition to earnings expectations, interest rate expectations move prices. Real estate stocks in particular, such as Vonovia and LEG, are now fluctuating heavily after their sharp drop in prices in recent months.
It is striking that all those involved who comment on the situation on the real estate market try not to badmouth the market. But there is no doubt that the sudden rise in interest rates is making new deals difficult. The US Federal Reserve has now sent signals to continue after its recent pause in the rate hike cycle. These signals are more likely to increase than decrease after Friday’s surprisingly robust jobs data out of the US. Wages continue to rise faster than expected – despite slowing economic growth.
Martin Hock and Daniel Mohr Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 6 Hanno Mußler Published/Updated: Recommendations: 179 Hanno Mußler Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 25
It’s similar in Europe, because with more regional supply chains, skilled workers are becoming increasingly important in this country. In Germany, too, companies have to offer larger wage increases than in the past in order to keep employees – that drives up prices. The European Central Bank will therefore continue to raise its key interest rates. In addition, the ECB no longer buys bonds for new issues and withdraws the cheap money from the TLTRO transactions from the banks. All of this is leading to a long overdue normalization on the market, with interest rates tending to rise. However, many banks and companies heavily financed by loans still have to get used to it. This is one of the reasons why there will still be one or two “profit warnings”.
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