2023-09-01 13:15:00
TRIBUNE/ANALYSIS – Since the second half of 2021, the site EuroMOMO (1) reveals an excess of mortality in the 15-44 age group, and this without triggering any alarm in public opinion. The institute minimizes the problem by indicating that the calculation of excess mortality is no longer reliable since the Covid pandemic because the mathematical model used for mortality predictions is no longer suitable.
Wanting to be clear, I developed a program following the instructions of statistician Pierre Chaillot to analyze French mortality from the death journal published each month on data.gouv.fr. I won’t go into the details of how the program works. Those who follow Pierre Chaillot from the YouTube channel Decoding the eco will be familiar with the different concepts used in the program. In particular the standardization of deaths which makes it possible to overcome the aging of the population in order to have comparable figures over the years.
The source code of the program can be found on the site GitHub and anyone with programming and statistical skills can check it, edit it, and submit fixes.
On first launch, the program automatically downloads death logs from the site data.gouv.fras well as the age pyramid files from the INSEE website.
This done, the program inserts the data into a database, calculates annual statistics, fits a straight line on the pre-pandemic death curve to be able to give predictions and calculate excess mortality compared to what is expected . The results are consolidated at the end in a Microsoft Excel file with graphics.
By default this is the graph that the program generates.
Here we see the number of standardized deaths in blue and in red the prediction from a linear regression over the Pre-Covid period from 2012 to 2019 inclusive.
We clearly see the excess mortality from 2020 with the Covid epidemic and we also see that this excess mortality still persists in 2022 when the pandemic is practically over.
This is in accordance with the findings of INSEE which titles in an article 53,800 more deaths than expected in 2022: higher excess mortality than in 2020 and 2021. The mortality excesses given in this article are equivalent to those given by my program despite a different methodology.
Year
INSEE surplus
Program surplus
2020
48400
50200
2021
42700
41700
2022
53800
52600
Now let’s look at the young people. We can specify arguments to the program to filter for example on the age range 5-40 years and we can also choose the semester as the unit of time rather than the year to increase the temporal resolution.
Here is the command line:
FrenchMortalityAnalyzer.exe evolution –MinAge 5 –MaxAge 40 –TimeMode Semester
Here’s the result :
The years in +0.0 represent the first semesters and the years in +0.5 represent the second semesters. This is purely a notational convention. For example 2021.0 represents the first half of 2021 and 2021.5 represents the second half of 2021.
Here is the table since 2020
Semester
Standardized deaths
Excess
2020,0
5118
-15
2020,5
5086
-11
2021,0
5056
-5
2021,5
5426
400
2022,0
5505
515
2022,5
5575
621
2023,0
5255
337
And what do we see?
First half of 2020 no excess mortality while we are in the midst of the first Covid wave.
Second half of 2020 no excess mortality while we are in the middle of the second Covid wave.
First half of 2021 no excess mortality while the Covid pandemic is still ongoing.
We see there that the Covid has had absolutely no impact in terms of mortality on those under 40 and that the death prediction model is valid. The number of deaths observed is very close to what is expected.
After that ?
Well everything changes:
Second half of 2021 excess of about 400 deaths compared to predictions while we are at the Delta variant, already much less severe and young people are being vaccinated massively.
First half of 2022 excess of about 500 deaths compared to predictions when we switched to the Omicron variant, even less severe.
Second half of 2022 excess of around 600 deaths compared to predictions while the pandemic is practically over.
First half of 2023 still a surplus of 330 deaths which seems to be going down despite the fact that we still have to remain cautious insofar as all the deaths have not yet risen for this period
Before commenting, we must ask ourselves if this surplus is significant?
For this we can make statistical error calculations. Using the standard deviation formula for the normal distribution:
With a mortality rate (p) of about 0.2 per 1,000 over a six-month period and a population (n) of about 27,400,000 individuals for the age group 5-40 years, we find a standard deviation theoretical about 73 deaths.
If we superimpose the normal distribution corresponding to a standard deviation of 73 with the actual distribution of the number of deaths each semester since 2012 we obtain the following histogram:
The normal distribution in red and the real distribution in blue. We see that all semesters strictly prior to the second half of 2021 are relatively well grouped around the normal distribution, confirming that there are only statistical fluctuations. On the other hand, the last four semesters (second half of 2021 and more) are well apart. The excess mortality in these four semesters is statistically significant.
And what is the probability that this happens by chance?
The second half of 2021 with a surplus of 400 is 5 times the standard deviation (400/73).
To your abacuses ! There is a 1 in 1,744,278 probability of being more than 5 times the standard deviation which makes these numbers extremely significant. Not to mention that it happened 4 semesters in a row. Something really happened. This cannot be by chance.
But then, what could have happened? What could have changed in the second half of 2021? What else if not that young people have been massively vaccinated with anti-Covid-19 vaccines?
Other than that I don’t see.
Has anyone heard of a new Covid variant that is much more deadly in young people that appeared in the second half of 2021?
Has anyone heard of a new scourge affecting young people that could explain such excess mortality?
The proponents of “correlation is not causation” have a lot of work to do to show us that it is not the anti-Covid-19 vaccines that are the cause of these additional deaths.
You still have to bear in mind that 10 years of decline in mortality among young people have been lost in one semester and that this still persists in the first half of 2023 when young people no longer receive anti-Covid-19 injections.
There are potentially long-term side effects and we will have to wait for the figures to rise for the second half of 2023 to see if this surplus finally disappears.
Does this excess mortality only exist among young people? Probably not, but it is however much more difficult to prove this with an analysis of all-cause mortality insofar as possible vaccine-related deaths will be drowned in deaths from other causes which will be much more important. in older people.
For those who are still doubtful here is a graph taken from the INSEE article previously mentioned.
You can see the increase in excess mortality between 2020 and 2022 in age groups under 35. The result is less precise insofar as the analysis is annual and shows the year 2021 as a pivotal year, whereas with the half-yearly analysis the increase is dazzling in the second half of 2021.
I leave you the last sentence of this article: “In 2022, fatal road accidents increased for 18-34 year olds (+12%, i.e. +109 people). Nevertheless, they are far from fully explaining the increase in excess mortality at these ages, which is therefore due to other factors.
INSEE therefore notes this increase in mortality among young people but does not give any explanation as to the causes. Not really in a hurry to find these famous “other factors”!
If we leave aside the prudishness and political correctness of INSEE, with the analysis here we arrive at a total of 1,700 excess deaths in France in the 5-40 age bracket which in all likelihood and up to evidence to the contrary are attributable to the massive anti-Covid-19 vaccination.
It must be realized that the fact that deaths due to vaccine side effects are visible in general mortality is unheard of in the history of vaccines and that in addition to the media not talking about it is even more staggering.
In 1976, a massive flu vaccination campaignwas interrupted in the United States just for about thirty deaths. Unfortunately, we have fallen very low!
For all living species, it is the descendants that are systematically favored to ensure the survival of the species at all costs. We must believe that in humans this rule does not apply. We are capable of sacrificing youth to prolong the life of people at the end of life by a few months.
A sort of unnecessary sacrifice, insofar as anti-Covid-19 vaccines only protect against severe forms and do not reduce the retransmission of the virus.
If the average age of Covid deaths is 81 years and the life expectancy is 83 years then we can make the following reasoning:
When you die at 20 you lose 63 years of life expectancy and it is the best years of your life that are stolen from you. When you die at 81 you lose two years of life expectancy. A 20-year-old dead person counts 30 times more than an 81-year-old dead person.
I leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.
Imagine at the end of your life having to choose between sacrificing your descendants so that you can live a few more months or sacrificing yourself so that your descendants can prosper? What do you choose?
Well the health authorities and the government have chosen for you. And it’s as if they had decided to sacrifice your descendants!
Note :
(1) EuroMOMO is a site dedicated to monitoring mortality in Europe. It aims to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.
Jean-Noël Haas, holder of a DEA in Subatomic Physics, is a computer scientist, developer of security and strong authentication solutions and independent creator of computer log analysis software.
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