Researchers from the University of Milan have published their figures in the leading cancer journal Annals of Oncology. They predict that by 2023, death rates from the ten most common cancers will continue to fall in most European countries. Nevertheless, the number of people dying of cancer will increase due to the aging population. A higher proportion of the elderly in the population means that a greater number are of the age at which they are more likely to develop and die from cancer.
The death rate from lung cancer is falling in men, but it has been on the rise in women for decades. — © rr
Smoking in the 70s
In 1988, scientists recorded an absolute spike in cancer death rates. Over the past 35 years, awareness campaigns, faster diagnosis and better treatment have prevented nearly 5.9 million deaths from the disease. “If the current trajectory of declining cancer death rates continues, it is possible that there could be another 35 percent reduction by 2035. However, this will require even more people to quit smoking and bring the growing epidemic of obesity and diabetes, alcohol consumption and infections under control,” says lead researcher Professor Carlo La Vecchia.
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The results of years of tobacco control can be seen in the statistics, but only in men. Lung cancer death rates have continued to rise in women for more than 35 years. In 2023, for the first time in history, more European women are expected to die from lung cancer than from breast cancer.
For the first time in history, more women may die from lung cancer than from breast cancer this year. — © RR
The researchers predict a decrease in deaths from lung cancer in the age group of 25 to 64 years, but there is an increase in the age group of 65 and older. “This is because women under the age of 65 smoked less and quit earlier than those born in their 50s. They were in their twenties in the 1970s and then smoking was most common among young women,” it sounds.
Other cancers
In a population of 100,000 people, 132.3 men and 82.4 women died of cancer in 2018. For 2023, the researchers expect a decrease to 123.8 men and 79.3 women per 100,000 who die from cancer, respectively.
In men, the report predicts the following absolute death rates per cancer for a population of 100,000: 29.8 for lung cancer, 14.7 for colon cancer, 9.5 for prostate cancer, 8.2 for pancreatic cancer, 5.3 for stomach cancer, 4, 3 for bladder cancer and 3.7 for leukemia. Compared to the 2018 numbers, those numbers – except for pancreas – drop with every cancer.
This is not the case for women, where mortality rates for lung and pancreatic cancer are rising. In absolute figures for a population of 100,000 people, this is the following: 13.7 for lung cancer, 13.6 for breast cancer, 8.1 for colon cancer, 5.9 for pancreatic cancer, 4.6 for uterine cancer, 4.3 for ovarian cancer , 2.3 for stomach cancer, 2.2 for leukemia and 1.1 for bladder cancer.
Overweight
In the report, the researchers point out the role that overweight and obesity play in various types of cancer, such as breast cancer after menopause, uterine, stomach and colon cancer. Healthier diets, better storage techniques and a decrease in bacterial infections mean that mortality rates for stomach cancer are declining. In contrast, up to a third of gastric cancers today occur in the entrance to the stomach and these cancers are associated with overweight and obesity.
The estimates in the report do not take into account the corona pandemic. This may have an effect on cancer mortality this year as a result of delayed diagnoses and treatments.