2023-10-14 09:56:57
The Irish, who are playing their eighth Rugby World Cup quarter-final on Saturday, have never reached this stage of the competition. They find the All Blacks, who eliminated them four years ago. But the Greens are no longer the same: they now dominate world rugby and have beaten New Zealand three times in their last four confrontations.
Published on: 14/10/2023 – 09:56
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Who will be the zombies at the final whistle of the elimination match between Ireland and New Zealand organized on Saturday October 14 at the Stade de France? After the great victories of the Irish over Scotland and South Africa in this same enclosure in the group stage, the supporters of the Greens took up at the top of their lungs the hit “Zombie” by the Irish group The Cranberries, hoping that their protégés will survive finally to the test of the quarter-finals of a Rugby World Cup.
The Irish have an unenviable record in the World Cup: this team, already seven times among the quarter-finalists, has never managed to qualify for the semi-finals. Since 1987, Ireland have successively been beaten by Australia (twice), France (twice), Wales, Argentina and finally New Zealand. A curse for the XV of Clover, who hopes that the 2023 edition will finally bring them luck.
This Irish team seems capable of going very far in this 2023 edition as it has been shining at the top of world rugby for a year and a half. In the spring, she won the Six Nations Tournament with a Grand Slam up for grabs, notably beating the Blues in Dublin (32-19). And she is getting closer to the record for consecutive international victories held jointly by New Zealand and England (18) since she is on a series of 17 consecutive successes.
The All Blacks are gaining momentum
Ireland’s last defeat dates back to early July 2022 against the All Blacks at Eden Park in Auckland (42-19). The score was heavy for the Irish XV, who had started a tour of New Zealand with other ambitions. He demonstrated it seven days later with a victory against the All Blacks in Dunedin (12-23), followed by another, on July 16, 2022, in Wellington (22-32). Ireland thus became the second team from the Northern Hemisphere to win their Test series in New Zealand, after France in 1994.
These performances are enough to raise some concerns or dark thoughts among the All Blacks. Even to make Ireland their pet peeve. Because they know that this confident European team is considered the big favorite of this competition. The company specializing in sports data Opta has just confirmed this after the end of the group stages in a new prediction: according to his calculationsIreland have a 21.4% chance of winning the Webb Ellis Cup, ahead of France (20.4%), South Africa (19.1%) and New Zealand (17.1%) .
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These probability calculations do not weigh very heavily on the New Zealand side before approaching this elimination match. The All Blacks have solid statistics: beaten only once in the quarter-finals, by France in 2007, they have already qualified for the semi-finals eight times. And they intend to continue their momentum against Ireland. Beaten at the start of this competition by France on September 8 (13-27), New Zealand finished the group stage at a frantic pace, as shown by its presence at the top of the teams having scored the most points, the most tests, the most transformations… and having made the most breakthroughs. Behind her, France and Ireland each time compete for second and third places.
The All Blacks have had a delicate preparation for the World Cup, marked in particular by a debacle in August against South Africa (35-7), the worst defeat ever suffered by New Zealand. This setback has revived doubts about the level of this selection beaten in the semi-final of the last World Cup (19-7). But the All Blacks remain fierce competitors with the ambition of winning a fourth world title in France, eight years after their last crown.
An unchanged Irish starting XV
The All Blacks have recorded valuable returns over the last five weeks, starting with that of their captain Sam Cane, who was withdrawn against the Blues. The three Barrett brothers will also hold their places against Ireland, as will powerful flanker Shannon Frizell and formidable second row Brodie Retallick. And the New Zealand bench will also have something to answer for with the experienced Sam Whitelock or the elusive Damian McKenzie.
The Irish have no doubts about their determination and expect to experience “a big boy thing” on Saturday, to use the words of their coach Andy Farrell. “We have an experienced group, who have been through a lot (…). We have become quite good at this kind of thing,” added the boss of the Irish XV. He too will be able to field his typical team, the same as the one that crushed the Scots (36-14) during the last group match. However, he made two changes on the bench, notably calling on Joe McCarthy in place of second row James Ryan, who suffered a wrist injury.
The Greens are already preparing to be able to listen to their favorite songs again at the Stade de France in front of an Irish audience which promises to be very large. As after their last two victories on this lawn. And if Ireland finally makes it to the quarter-finals in a World Cup, the Pogues’ song “Fiesta” could well replace “Dirty Old Town” in the musical programming this time.
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