To increase the pressure on Ukraine, Vladimir Putin agitates the nuclear threat

“It’s not a bluff. » Faced with the setbacks suffered in recent weeks in Ukraine by its army, which had to evacuate the Kharkiv region, the Russian President tried to regain control by insistently recalling, during his speech broadcast on Wednesday 21 September, his determination to potentially use nuclear weapons to “protect Russia and our people”.

The nuclear factor in the Ukrainian conflict does not appear with this statement. As early as February 27, three days after the start of the Russian invasion, Vladimir Putin ordered the country’s “deterrent force” on alert, considered the world’s leading nuclear power in terms of the number of warheads. Since then, senior Russian politicians, such as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have regularly reminded Ukrainians and their Western allies of the existence of these weapons. Their shadow has continued to weigh in the debates on the limits of military assistance to be provided to Ukraine.

This threat nevertheless takes on an unprecedented dimension, at a time when the borders of Russia are preparing to marry those of a 1,000 kilometer front. Referendums of “attachment” to Russia, the outcome of which is in little doubt, will be held from September 23 to 27 in the occupied territories of the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporijjia and Kherson. Fierce fighting is currently taking place there. However, Vladimir Putin indicates that attacks against these regions will, from the moment of their annexation, be considered as attacks against Russian territory, and could then justify a nuclear response.

A dangerous bet

Some experts believe that by bringing the bomb “to the front” in this way, Vladimir Putin is significantly extending the Russian doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons. Initially, the latter provides for their use only in two cases: if Russia is attacked with nuclear weapons, or if a conventional attack without nuclear weapons endangers the very existence of the Russian state.

“Putin today adds the defense of “territorial integrity”, and abstract notions such as the protection of the people, independence and freedom”notes on Twitter Andreï Baklitski, specialist in the Russian nuclear arsenal, who calls not to take these statements lightly. “None of this means that Russia will use these weapons. But expanding their terms of use in the midst of a conflict is a dangerous gamble. »

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he does not believe that Moscow will cross the Rubicon, the White House says it takes the Russian president’s statements seriously, denouncing “irresponsible rhetoric from a nuclear power”. A rhetoric also recognized as “dangerous” by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Psychological warfare

In fact, Vladimir Putin’s statements reinforce fears of a nuclear strike on Ukraine. These could take various forms, depending on the power of the warheads used, and the targets chosen. But the options seem limited, warns Russian nuclear weapons specialist Pavel Podvig. “Some so-called tactical bombs were designed for use on the battlefield, but it is clear that they would have no use in Ukraine”, he says, for lack of concentrations of military forces. There would then remain the possibility of intimidation strikes on empty or sparsely populated areas, on infrastructures, or worse, on cities.

Could Vladimir Putin take this step? The Russian president himself affirms that he is not “bluffing”, a way of reinforcing the credibility of his threats. Russian propagandists have also been juggling for years with the idea of ​​a Russia that would not hesitate to burn down large Western metropolises. “It’s an element of psychological warfare to push Ukraine to make concessions”comments Sergei Radtchenko, historian of the Cold War, according to whom the use of the bomb would make Russia a pariah in the eyes of the whole world. “Russian rhetoric is made to believe that Putin will go all the way, that he is not totally rational. It’s in Vladimir Putin’s interest to look crazy. »

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A series of historical precedents

Humanity officially entered the nuclear age with the American bombings of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, 1945.

The Soviet Union became a nuclear power in 1949, the United Kingdom in 1952, France in 1960 and China in 1964.

In April 1951, during the Korean War, General MacArthur was fired after pushing for nuclear bombings in Korea and China.

Moscow repeatedly raised the nuclear threat, notably during the Suez Canal crisis (1956), the Berlin Wall crisis (1961) and, above all, during the Cuba crisis (1962).

After the paroxysm of Cuba, Americans and Soviets (then Russians) engage in a strategic dialogue, signing, from the 1970s, a series of nuclear disarmament agreements.