Researchers at the University of British Columbia in Canada said governments should take joint action to prevent this and mandate that rocket parts be safely brought back to Earth after use. Although this will increase the cost to the government on the one hand, they have emphasized that it will save human lives.
When things like satellites are launched into space, they use rockets. Their parts are often left in orbit, the researchers noted. If these leftover rocket parts are in low enough orbit, they can re-enter the atmosphere uncontrollably. They warn that most of the material will burn up in the atmosphere, but dangerous fragments may still make their way to Earth. The research paper, published in the journal Nature Astronomy, analyzed more than 30 years of data from the public satellite catalog and calculated the potential risk to human life over the next 10 years.
Calculations warn that there is a 6 to 10 percent chance that humans on Earth could be endangered within the next decade. They note that hazardous debris hitting Earth’s surface from space is unheard of, including a 12-meter-long pipe that damaged buildings in 2020 when a rocket fragment hit a village in Ivory Coast.
The researchers noted that proper research into technology and mission designs, including having extra fuel to safely guide rocket parts to remote areas of the ocean, could now largely eliminate this risk.
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