At the end of the first round of legislative elections marked by record abstention (52.49%), the candidates of Nupes (5,939,897 votes, or 26.11% of the votes cast enjoy an epsilonesque lead over those of the presidential majority (Together!, 5,886,504, 25.88%).
The candidates of the National Rally come in third place (4,248,626, 18.68%), far ahead of those of the Republicans and the Union of the Independent Right (2,570,290, 11.3%). This election is an electoral setback for Eric Zemmour’s party, Reconquête! who despite 4.25% of the votes cast did not manage to qualify a single one of the 551 candidates he presented.
Behind the national score, 577 elections are being played out in the constituencies to fill the seats in the Palais-Bourbon.
It is in the big cities that the candidates of the Nupes achieve their best scores: four were elected in the first round; three in Paris (Sophia Chikirou, Sarah Legrain and Danièle Obono) in the 6e16e et 17e constituencies and one in the 7e of Seine-Saint-Denis (Alexis Corbière).
Eight other Nupe candidates also obtained a score higher than 50% of the votes cast (four in Seine-Saint-Denis, one in Val-de-Marne, one in Hauts-de-Seine, one in the North and one in the Bouches-du-Rhône) without being elected (they did not obtain the required 25% of registered voters).
Of the 557 candidates presented by this union on the left, 194 came first in their constituency in the first round and 390 are able to maintain themselves in the second round.
The Ipsos-Sopra Steria institute estimates the number of seats winnable by Nupes between 150 and 190.
The presidential majority candidates managed to qualify in 421 constituencies. They came out on top in 203 of them. Only one candidate was elected in the first round: Yannick Favennec in the 3e constituency of Mayenne (57.13% of the votes cast).
However, it is a lackluster performance for the coalition of the presidential majority, which could only obtain a narrow parliamentary majority. According to projections by the Ipsos-Sopra Steria institute, they could have between 255 and 295 deputies elected at the end of the second round, the absolute majority being 289 deputies.
On the side of the National Rally, 110 candidates came out on top in the first round and 208 are able to maintain themselves in the second, out of the 567 presented by the far-right party. This is a real breakthrough compared to 2017 since around half as many candidates from Marine Le Pen’s party managed to stay in the second round. They then obtained eight seats. Projections suggest the possibility, for the next mandate, of obtaining 20 to 45 seats, which would allow the formation of a parliamentary group.
It was mainly peri-urban and rural constituencies that placed the Rassemblement national in the lead. The entire Mediterranean rim, the Garonne valley to Charente-Maritime and a large north-eastern part of the country will see a second round take place in the presence of this far-right party.
The Republican candidates and their UDI allies, present in 507 constituencies, were eliminated from 432 of them. It is, ultimately, 75 candidates from this formation who will be able to remain in the second round, including 42 who came first.
In 2017, 199 candidates had qualified for the second round, and, in fine 129 LR-UDI seats had been obtained in the National Assembly. The estimates for the second round show, for the whole of the right, LR-UDI and various right of 50 to 80 possible seats at the Palais-Bourbon.